The SAGE files: 'Traffic light' system for easing lockdown could see high-risk activities like going to the pub classed as 'red' while picnics are 'green' - as ministers say they ARE considering loosening rules for going outdoors

  • Ministers preparing to publish a back-to-work dossier for seven sectors of the economy at end of the week
  • Government advisers suggest a 'traffic light' system to get across more complicated rules on activities
  • Employers will be told to close canteens and communal areas, with staff encouraged to eat packed lunch 
  • Shift patterns will be staggered to limit the number of people at work at any one time and reduce traffic 
  • With the measures, millions of staff will be told to keep working from home indefinitely 'if at all possible' 
  • Unions have branded the blueprint unacceptable warning that people could simply refuse to do their jobs 
  • Labour's Sir Keir Starmer lined up behind the complaints swiping that PPE is not a 'luxury item' for workers 
A traffic light system could be used to explain to the public the new rules when lockdown is eased, according to government advisers.
Behavioural experts floated a simple system to classify activities as they warned people could struggle to grasp complicated new arrangements.
The proposal emerged in a paper prepared for the government's SAGE group, which has been released on its website along with a tranche of other documents.
The report from the sub-committee on behaviour, produced last month, said the 'stay at home' guidance had been effective up to now because it was so simple.
It added that 'methods that have been used successfully for helping people understand how to implement other behaviour changes (such as healthy eating) include providing a ''traffic light'' list of examples of high (avoid), medium (do rarely and carefully) and low (do freely) risk activities'. 
The experts did not give specific examples, but Downing Street has confirmed that ministers are looking at loosening rules for outdoors, where risk of spread is lower - suggesting things like picnics in parks could be in the green category. 
By contrast, there have been warnings that pubs and restaurants are prime spaces for the infection to be passed on and could be classified as red.
Other activities, such as badminton or golf, could fall into the amber category - although it is not clear whether the government will adopt the advice.
The ideas from the behavioural experts underline concerns that 'coronaphobia' could be a major obstacle to lifting the restrictions threatening to strangle the economy and destroy millions of jobs.
Polls have suggested large proportions of the public would be deeply anxious about returning to even a semblance of normality - amid warnings the government's stark messaging so far has been too successful. 
In other developments in the UK's coronavirus crisis:
  • Ministers could let healthy over-70s be released from lockdown with the rest of the UK amid fears of 'social unrest' if they have to endure longer coronavirus restrictions than the rest of the UK;
  • Residents of the Isle of Wight have been urged to sign up for a pilot scheme of a virus-tracking app; 
  • Britain's coronavirus crisis may have killed 34 per cent more people than the Government's daily statistics update shows. Office for National Statistics data today reveal 29,710 people in England and Wales had COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate by April 24;     
  • Scientists were urging Boris Johnson to tell people to stop shaking hands the same day the PM was boasting about shaking hands with 'everybody', newly released documents have revealed;  
  • There are serious concerns that 'immunity certificates' will be socially divisive if an effective test for coronanvirus antibodies is developed. Employers could shun those without immunity, and desperate people could try to get infected deliberately, according to a government paper last month; 
  • Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has told MPs that surviving coronavirus 'almost certainly' does not provide total immunity;
  • He also said cast doubt on plans to ease social distancing rules, saying the infection risk was  30-times higher for someone a metre from a carrier instead of two metres.
Behavioural experts have floated a simple 'traffic light' system to classify activities as they warned people could struggle to grasp complicated new arrangements

Boris Johnson was out for a walk in a park this morning - one of the activities that could be classified as 'green'

Just one in four Britons would feel safe returning to work amid the coronavirus crisis and more than half are opposed to schools reopening, three new polls have found.  
Research by Opinium at the weekend found only 17 per cent of Britons agreed conditions had been met to considering reopening schools on May 8, with 67 per cent of those polled believing the opposite.  
There was also opposition to the reopening of restaurants and pubs - with only 11 per cent agreeing Britain is at a place to open eateries and 9 per cent supporting a return to pubs.
Britons more strongly opposed a return to stadium events and nightclubs, with 7 per cent saying conditions have been met for both to resume, compared to 84 per cent who did not.  
The government is facing a furious backlash at its draft 'road map' for starting to loosen the draconian curbs strangling the economy and plunging the country into debt.
More people are set to be encouraged to edge back to work, with guidelines on how to minimise the risks. Other precautions will need to be in place if the two-metre social distancing rules cannot be maintained, while business will be told to close canteens, stagger shift patterns, spread out offices and stop people sharing equipment. 
But unions and Labour are demanding much tougher protections, suggesting that otherwise people could simply refuse to show up for work. 
The GMB said the guidance did 'not adequately protect workers - and as a result many may refuse to work to avoid putting themselves and their families at risk'. 
Rail unions have been particularly vocal in stating their members must not be put at risk on crowded trains without more guarantees from the government.  
In a round of interviews this morning, Sir Keir lined up behind the warnings, saying the government must set a 'national safety standard'.
'This is not just a reassurance exercise for those going back to work, it's essential for the safety of the nation,' he said. 'If you don't have the protective equipment, and that means that people get infected, we're going to be right back where we started.'
He insisted protective equipment for workers is not a 'luxury item' that would be 'nice to have'.
Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon dealt another blow to the UK's united front on coronavirus today, hinting that she will diverge from the Westminster government's policy.
The Scottish First Minister said her 'overarching responsibility' was to represent interests north of the border, saying it was possible the outbreak was 'slightly' stronger there. She also unveiled her own 'exit strategy', days before Mr Johnson is due to, including proposals for people to be able to mix in 'bubbles' outside their own household. However, she insisted there is no prospect of the lockdown being eased this week. 
Asked about a suggestion from Ms Sturgeon that people in Scotland could be allowed to meet up with 'small defined groups' outdoors, the PM's spokesman said: 'Broadly the scientific and medical experts have been clear that there is is less likelihood of transmission of this disease outdoors than indoors.
'That will obviously be something we are considering as part of the review.' 
Ministers are considering easing the coronavirus social-distancing restrictions on people meeting outdoors, Downing Street has said.
The spokesman said they were looking at a range of possible 'easements' - as well some toughening of the rules - ahead of the expected publication on Sunday of the Government's 'roadmap' on the next phase of the Covid-19 response.
'We are looking at a range of possible easements to the social distancing measures. We are also looking at areas that need to be toughened,' the spokesman said.
'Once we have the scientific evidence and we have completed the review process, we will be able to set out what those are.' 
The government has warned industry groups that the restrictions could stay in place for six to 12 months - dashing hopes of a swift return to normal life. 
Under the plans, shift will be staggered to limit the number of people at work at any one time and reduce rush-hour pressure on public transport. Access to communal facilities like photocopiers will be limited, areas of the floor will be taped off to keep people two metres apart and people could be barred from sitting opposite one another.

'A dozen strains of coronavirus in the UK' 

At least a dozen different strains of coronavirus were spreading through the UK in March, a Government-funded study has found.
Leading genetic scientists analysed the genomes of the killer virus in 260 infected patients from all corners of the UK.
They say they have identified 12 unique lines of the virus, one of which has only ever been found in Britain – meaning it mutated on UK soil.
But the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium (COG-UK) said the number of strains ‘is very likely substantially higher’ due to under-sampling in the UK.

Recovering from coronavirus 'almost certainly' WON'T stop people getting it AGAIN, warns top science adviser

Coronavirus survivors will 'almost certainly' not obtain 'absolute immunity' from a second illness naturally, the Government's chief scientific adviser warned this morning.
Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that the vast majority of those who manage to beat the disease build up anti-bodies that attack it in the body and will get 'some degree of protection'.
But he admitted that work is still ongoing around the world into the level of protection it affords - showing the need for a viable vaccine to be developed.
It comes as the Government comes under increasing pressure to ease the social end economic lockdown on Britain.
But ministers are keen to avoid a second peak of infections by making sure the 'R' infection rate. stays below 1. 
Appearing in front of the Health and Social Care Committee this morning he also said scientists have yet to discover whether survivors who get a second dose can pass it on to those around them, even if they do not become ill again themselves.
Describing the  science on antibody protection as 'promising;' he said: 'Everything suggests you can get neutralising antibodies, those are antibodies which protect against the disease. 
'So you would expect some degree of protection from antibodies. We don't know that it provides absolute immunity and it almost certainly doesn't - it will provide some degree of protection.
'The other thing we don;'t know is whether it is still possible to carry the virus even if you have got antibodies. 
'So that is more about whether you can still be infectious to someone else rather than whether you are protected against it.'
Giving a potential timeframe for immunity based on experience from other coronaviruses, he said: 'It may last for one, two, three years, but not for many, many years.' 
At her briefing in Edinburgh today, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said her preference was for the UK to coordinate action, but stressed her 'overarching responsibility' was to do what was right for Scotland
Police give advice on social distancing to people enjoying the sunshine in Edinburgh earlier this month
Police give advice on social distancing to people enjoying the sunshine in Edinburgh earlier this month
Hot desking will be banned and workers will not even be allowed to lend each other a pen for fear of spreading the virus.
As a result of the stringent measures, millions of staff will be told to keep working from home indefinitely 'if at all possible'.
And firms have been told that 'vulnerable' people, including the over-70s, pregnant women and the severely obese, should work from home – even if this means finding them a new role. 
In his interviews, Sir Keir said: 'I sense that people are really worried about lifting of lockdown. They're really worried about going back to work. They need a high level of reassurance.'
He said a national consensus would give 'a degree of confidence', adding: 'The point that trade unions have raised is safety at work and there was a consultation document the government put out last weekend which was pretty vague, and it needs strengthening.
'That's why one of the principles I've set out today is a national safety standard.
'I think people will want to know if I'm going back to work, is it a safe environment, what's being done about social distancing, what are the hand-washing facilities, if I need protective equipment am I going to get it?
'It's that degree of reassurance.'  
Amid a wave of criticism from unions, TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady said: 'Throughout this crisis the TUC has sought to engage constructively with ministers. But we cannot support the Government's back-to-work plans as they stand.
'We want new binding rules for employers to publish their risk assessment and action plan. We want clear guidance to set out the minimum standards that employers must meet in order to protect public safety. And we want ministers to outline a new tough approach to enforcement.
'Unless the Government significantly strengthens its plans, safe working will not be guaranteed. The current proposals fail to provide clear direction to those employers who want to act responsibly. And they are an open goal for rogue employers, who will cut corners and put their workers - and the wider community - at risk.
'We urge ministers to work with the TUC and unions to ensure people can make a safe return to work.'
Prospect union general secretary Mike Clancy said: 'If the economy is to recover sustainably and safely then a return to work must be managed properly.
'The question is how the advice from Public Health England is grounded in relevant evidence. The Government must provide absolute clarity on how workplaces can operate safely, and it must set out the evidence for its advice.
'We all want to get back to work, but there is no point in easing the lockdown if the guidelines put people at risk, potentially causing a spike in cases and another full-scale lockdown,' he added.

Scientists advised on March 3 that shaking hands should stop but PM was still doing it

Scientists were urging the government  to tell people to stop shaking hands the same day Boris Johnson was boasting about shaking hands with 'everybody', it was revealed today. 
Newly-released records on the advice given to the government as the coronavirus crisis erupted show Mr Johnson seemingly flouted the recommendations from his own experts.
A meeting of the behavioural group that feeds into SAGE on March 3 concluded that 'Government should advise against greetings such as shaking hands and hugging, given existing evidence about the importance of hand hygiene'. 
'A public message against shaking hands has additional value as a signal about the importance of hand hygiene,' the Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) said. 
'Promoting a replacement greeting or encouraging others to politely decline a proffered hand-shake may have benefit.' 
However, that evening Mr Johnson told a press conference in Downing Street that he 'continued to shake hands' and the important thing was washing them.    
Over subsequent days Mr Johnson was seen shaking hands with celebrities and dignitaries. 
There was still heavy traffic on the A102 in Greenwich this morning despite the government's lockdown instructions
Commuters on the Tube in London this morning have little chance of obeying the 'social distancing' guidelines to stay two metres apart
Commuters on the Tube in London this morning have little chance of obeying the 'social distancing' guidelines to stay two metres apart

Risk of catching coronavirus up to 30 TIMES higher if you are one metre from carrier instead of two metres  

The risk of catching coronavirus increase by up to 30 times if you go from two to one metres from a sufferer, Sir Patrick Vallance has warned.
It comes amid moves to get offices back to work, possible by relaxing the current  social distancing rule within workspaces. 
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace yesterday said that firms would be allowed to break the two-metre rule on social distancing where it was unavoidable.
But he suggested that other precautions, such as plastic screens, might have to be installed in workplaces.
However, Sir Patrick, the Government's chief scientific adviser, told the Commons Health Committee this morning (above): 'The evidence is, as far as you can get very firm evidence on this, that essentially a minute at two metres  ...  is about the same risk as six seconds at one metre.
'So that gives you some idea of why the two metres becomes important.
'And the risk at one metre is about 10 to 30 times higher than the risk at two metres.
'So the distancing is an important part of this.'
John Phillips, acting general secretary of the GMB Union, said: 'We desperately need to get the economy going and nobody is keener than GMB to get people back to work - but this guidance was thrown together in a hurry and it shows.
'Giving unions and employers just 12 hours to respond is not good enough and means crucial changes will not be made. We cannot endorse crucial guidance if it is incomplete.
'The guidance has to be clear on how safe working practice is to be enforced.
'As it stands, there is nothing on PPE, nothing on enforcement to ensure workplaces are safe and nothing giving workers the assurances they need to get back to their jobs.' 
The general secretaries of 10 teaching unions across the UK and Ireland have written to the education ministers in all five jurisdictions urging 'significant caution in any consideration of reopening schools'.
The letter, sent by the British and Irish Group of Teachers' Unions (BIGTU) on behalf of teachers, warns of the 'very real risk of creating a spike in the transmission of the virus by a premature opening of schools'.
It says: 'We are convinced by the experience of other systems that a critical tool in preventing a surge of infection is an established capacity to 'test, trace and isolate' and we would argue that reopening schools before such a regime is in place would be catastrophic to the rate of infection.'
The coalition of union leaders argues that schools can only reopen and operate safely if there are 'significant operational changes' in place to ensure effective social distancing, as well as strong hygiene routines and appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) where required.
'We would urge that the initial focus when schools reopen, in any capacity, should be on the health, wellbeing, and emotional resilience of our students,' it adds.
The letter follows speculation that schools could be asked to reopen their doors to more pupils before the summer holidays.
The businesses were told in the consultation document that there will be a 'gradual winding down' of the restrictions after the winter.
The warnings of a year under restrictions are thought to have been influenced by fears among government medical advisers that the coronavirus is seasonal.   
An industry source said: 'If it survives the winter, these measures will have to be in place longer.'
Other measures introduced will include safety guidance for 'in-home workers', including cleaners, cooks  and plumbers, as well as people offering services like fitness trainers.  
For example, companies should provide the same cleaner to the same house where possible and delivery companies should call residents rather than ringing the doorbell. 
The measures will also encourage taxi drivers to use contactless payment where possible. 
Meanwhile, retailers have been told to ask customers to 'shop alone' to prevent queues when high street stores finally reopen.
But there is no sign of any return for pubs and restaurants, except those offering takeaway services.
The plans will form a central plank in the Government's proposals for the 'second phase' of the coronavirus crisis, which are set to be unveiled by Boris Johnson at the weekend.
Last night however, ministers were on a collision course with trade unions over the proposals, with leaders warning that staff could be ordered to down tools unless their safety is guaranteed.
Transport unions said that drivers could refuse to resume train and bus services.
One Government source said the opposition of the unions could be a 'major problem' in getting Britain back to work and ending the crippling lockdown that is costing the economy an estimated £2billion a day. However, businesses reserved judgment on the proposals, with bosses saying the plans did not reflect real life and lacked information about the kind of protective equipment staff will need.
Government sources last night indicated that ministers are set to roll over the lockdown for another three weeks when they review it on Thursday. The Prime Minister will then outline a 'comprehensive' plan to get Britain moving again at the weekend.
But the leaked documents on the planned return to work confirm that the 'new normal', as described by ministers, will bear little resemblance to our old life. In a video message yesterday, the PM suggested any lifting of restrictions will be very gradual, saying: 'The worst thing we could do now is ease up too soon and allow a second peak of coronavirus.'
In the Commons, several Tory MPs urged a faster lifting of the lockdown. Sir Charles Walker warned Britain would suffer 'a tidal wave of human misery' if thousands of good firms were allowed to go to the wall.
Tory shop steward Sir Graham Brady urged ministers to act 'with a view to removing restrictions and removing these arbitrary rules and limitations on freedom as quickly as possible'. 
But speaking at the daily Downing Street press conference last night, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the first aim was to 'protect the NHS so the NHS is always there to protect you and your family.' 
Under the Government's plans, all firms employing more than five people will have to draw up a detailed risk assessment of working conditions.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace yesterday said that firms would be allowed to break the two-metre rule on social distancing where it was unavoidable.
But he suggested that other precautions, such as plastic screens, might have to be installed in workplaces. However, the draft documents give few details to employers or unions, saying only that guidance on PPE 'is to follow'.
The country could also see handwashing kits by doors, one-way systems in offices, train platforms and bus stops, and limits on the number of people in shops - many of which will go cashless. 
Public transport stations would have two metre markers to keep social distancing, with one-way systems to prevent unnecessary contact.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies will today call on ministers to offer subsidies and tax breaks to encourage working from home.
The independent think-tank also warns that peak fares might have to be increased to try to reduce overcrowding in the rush hour.
Business leaders called for clarity on issues such as PPE and whether firms can be held liable even if they fulfil their obligations to protect employees.
Director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce Adam Marshall said bosses 'will want to know that they're not going to be held liable for horrible things that may unfortunately happen if they've done everything in their power to keep their people safe'.

Forgotten victims of the corona pandemic: From a 7-year-old girl battling seizures to father-of-three who needs cancer surgery, the patients in limbo after their NHS treatment was put on potentially tragic hold 
They are the forgotten victims of the corona pandemic — patients caught up in a devastating NHS crisis which is costing thousands of lives.
From a seven-year-old girl battling with seizures to a father-of-three who needs cancer surgery, every one of them has had their treatment put on hold while the NHS diverts resources to fight the virus. 
And many of them believe it could result in their death.
Last Saturday, the Mail revealed the true scale of this emerging national tragedy. 
Two million operations have been cancelled and an estimated 2,700 cancers a week left undiagnosed.
Lyla O'Donovan, 7, has a brain tumour and is 'heartbroken' the surgery she should have had last month is on hold because of the danger of catching Covid-19

In what doctors call the 'collateral damage' of Covid-19, nearly 1,800 extra deaths were recorded by the Office of National Statistics in one week last month, the highest number for nearly 20 years.
The Government wants hospitals to treat people in crucial need of medical help. But, because of the virus, operating theatres have been mothballed and wards closed.
For those who wait, the dreadful truth is that help may come too late.
Lyla O'Donovan, 7
Lyla has a brain tumour and is 'heartbroken' the surgery she should have had last month is on hold because of the danger of catching Covid-19.
The operation is to relieve pressure on her brain and stop her having seizures. 
Her father, Paul, 35, a soldier from Co. Durham, says: 'For every seizure she has, we don't know the extent of the brain damage it's doing.'
Reginald Waite, 82
The pensioner from Eaton, Cheshire, was diagnosed with cancer in March after a scan picked up a blockage in his bile duct, but has had a planned operation postponed.
Reginald, a retired electronics engineer, is worried his cancer will spread. 'When are the hospitals going to treat people such as cancer patients and not just concentrate on Covid-19?' he asks.
Reginald Waite, 82, from Eaton, Cheshire, was diagnosed with cancer in March after a scan picked up a blockage in his bile duct, but has had a planned operation postponed

The wheelchair-bound teenager needs two operations — one on his leg to help him walk and another to drain fluid from his brain, but both are on hold.
Kieran, from North Ayrshire, has autism and was diagnosed with five brain tumours two years ago.
His mother, Senga, says: 'I am very anxious for Keiran.'
Kieran Crighton, 14, needs two operations — one on his leg to help him walk and another to drain fluid from his brain, but both are on hold

Ceri Maddock Jones, 39
Mother-of-two Ceri was diagnosed with inoperable pancreatic cancer five years ago. Before the virus struck, she'd hoped to go on a med- ical trial.
'The trials are the only option for me. Everything else has been exhausted,' says Ceri, who lives in Ewell, Surrey, with husband Garry and their sons, Austin, six, and Leo, five.
'I don't want to die, for my sons' sake. These trials were my last hope of keeping my family together a bit longer.'
Mother-of-two Ceri Maddock Jones, 39, was diagnosed with inoperable pancreatic cancer five years ago

Roland Monger, 39
Roland may have only months to live after his chemotherapy for the skin cancer he has been battling for four years was put on hold.
The university admissions manager from Torpoint, Cornwall, says: 'It is my 40th in July. 
I am aiming to make that. Maybe I will see the kids back to school in September.'
Roland Monger, 39, may have only months to live after his chemotherapy for the skin cancer he has been battling for four years was put on hold
Laura Beattie, 31, pictured left with sister Rachel, needs a lung transplant after cystic fibrosis ravaged her own organs

The risk of her getting an infection at the hospital filled with Covid patients is believed to have been the reason. 
'I am having monthly appointments over the phone, but the doctors can't measure my lung function properly,' she says. 
Which means, crucially, they can't assess whether it is declining because of the disease.
Chris Romney, 64, from Derbyshire, has advanced prostate cancer
Chris Romney, 64, from Derbyshire, has advanced prostate cancer
Chris Romney, 64
The grandfather from Derbyshire has advanced prostate cancer and has had his surgery at Royal Derby Hospital postponed after facilities were given over to coronavirus patients.
Chris, a retired RAF fighter controller and Nato executive, now fears his life is on the line.
He said: 'Cancer patients have been side-lined. Those like me who need urgent surgery face an increased risk of the cancer spreading, potentially fatally.'
Chris, who lives with his wife, Laura, says the hospital has told him opening up facilities to non-Covid patients will be a 'long, complicated' process.
Rob Martinez, 63
Rob, from Berkshire, suffers from osteoarthritis which is so severe he struggles to climb up and down stairs.
He needs both knee joints replaced, and was forced to take early retirement because of his pain. 
Last year, he was given a date for his first knee replacement: April 15, at Frimley Park Hospital in Surrey. Rob was overjoyed.
Rob Martinez, 63, from Berkshire, suffers from osteoarthritis which is so severe he struggles to climb up and down stairs

But then he got a call to say all operations had been cancelled for the next three months — starting from the day of his surgery.
'There's going to be such a backlog after all this I dread to think what's going to happen,' he said. 'There's a worry that something like a knee replacement will be forgotten.'
Andy Gower, 53
The businessman from Milton Keynes has only the slimmest chance of surviving his colon cancer if his operation is delayed. 
He was due to have surgery this month, but it was cancelled when his hospital was turned over to Covid-19 patients.
Andy Gower, 53, from Milton Keynes, has only the slimmest chance of surviving his colon cancer if his operation is delayed

Now Andy, a father of three, has been told it may be seven weeks before he can have an operation on his stage-three cancer.
He says: 'If I get the operation soon, I have a 75 per cent survival rate, which is quite good. 
'But if it has spread to stage four beforehand, then my chances go down to ten per cent.'

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