Key battleground tips to Trump according to latest poll

Former President Trump narrowly carried Pennsylvania in 2016, but President Biden edged him in the key northeastern battleground 4 years later

Former President Trump holds a slight edge over President Biden in battleground Pennsylvania, a key swing state in general elections that will likely be crucial in deciding the winner of their 2024 rematch.

That was the headline from a new Marist College Poll, which indicates Trump at 47% support and Biden at 45% backing among registered voters in Pennsylvania. 

Democrat turned independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy registered at 3% in the survey, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West each at 1% and 2% undecided.

Among the smaller pool of those likely to vote in the presidential election, the presumptive Republican nominee continues to edge his Democratic successor in the White House 48%-46% in a multi-candidate field.


Trump at a campaign event

Former President Trump stands next to a podium placed next to him to challenge President Biden to a debate as he speaks at a rally on April 13, 2024, in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Trump became the first Republican in nearly three decades to win Pennsylvania - which is considered part of the Democrats' blue wall of northeastern and Midwestern states - when he carried it by a razor-thin margin in his 2016 White House victory over Hillary Clinton.

However, four years later, Biden narrowly carried his native state en route to defeating Trump and winning the presidency.


The new poll from Marist, conducted June 3-6, points to problems for Biden with parts of the Democratic Party's base.

"While still strong, Biden has lost his formidable support among Black voters. 68% break for Biden to 23% for Trump. Biden handily won the support of most Black voters in the 2020 presidential election, 92% to 7% for Trump," the poll's release spotlights.

President Biden speaks during a campaign event in Philadelphia on May 29, 2024.

President Biden speaks during a campaign event in Phila

The poll also points to a Trump surge among voters under age 45 in Pennsylvania. Biden carried the group by 24 points in his victory four years ago, but the survey indicates Biden's edge at just two points over Trump.

However, the survey also highlights that "Trump’s advantage among older voters has evaporated. He carried voters 45 or older by 12 percentage points in 2020. Now, three percentage points separate Trump (48%) and Biden (45%) among this group."

While Trump holds the edge over Biden in the latest polling in most of the key swing states, and while his fundraising has surged in the wake of his conviction two weeks ago in the first criminal trial of a current or former president, Trump and the Republican National Committee are currently facing a large deficit to the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee when it comes to grassroots out reach and get-out-the-vote efforts.

The Trump campaign opens its first office in Pennsylvania

GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas headlines the opening of the first Trump campaign office in Pennsylvania on June 4, 2024, in Philadelphia. (Fox News - Paul Steinhauser)

The Trump campaign along with the RNC and the Pennsylvania GOP last week opened their first campaign office in Pennsylvania.

In comparison, the Biden re-election campaign, the Democratic National Committee and Pennsylvania Democrats, spotlight that they have 24 coordinated offices and hundreds of staffers across the Commonwealth.

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