Majority of England's Omicron cases ARE double-vaccinated: Health chiefs reveal 55% of those with Covid super-strain had both jabs amid fears it can dodge shots - as UK daily cases creep up
More than half of England's Omicron Covid cases were in double-vaccinated people, health officials revealed today amid fears the super-mutant can slip past existing jabs.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said 12 of the 22 known cases up to November 30 — 55 per cent — were in people who had at least two doses.
Cases of Omicron have risen domestically since, with 59 infections found across the UK in total. Six were unvaccinated, two were partially vaccinated with one dose and the vaccination status of the remaining two is not known.
But health chiefs caution that fare more adults in England are fully vaccinated than not jabbed, so it does not necessarily confirm that Omicron is vaccine-resistant.
Separate official data shows that the proportion of positive Covid tests with a mutation synonymous with the highly-evolved strain is on the rise. Like Alpha, or the 'Kent variant', Omicron has a specific alteration which means it can be detected through PCR tests without the need for genomic sequencing.
The proportion of positive tests in England with this so-called S-gene dropout has risen from 0.1 per cent in the past week to 0.3 per cent, the equivalent of one in 330. Scientists said the increase in S-gene dropouts suggests there could be hundreds of Omicron cases that are flying under the radar currently.
Government figures showed another 50,584 positive tests were recorded in the last 24 hours, up one per cent on last Friday. Yesterday there were 53,945 infections announced.
But deaths fell by ten per cent week-on-week after 143 more fatalities were recorded. Latest figures showed hospitalisations rose eight per cent in a week after 787 were recorded on November 29. For comparison, seven days ago there were 730 admissions.
Official data shows that the proportion of positive Covid tests with a mutation synonymous with the highly-evolved strain is on the rise. Like Alpha, or the 'Kent variant', Omicron has a specific alteration which means it can be detected through PCR tests without the need for genomic sequencing. The proportion of positive tests in England with this so-called S-gene dropout has risen from 0.1 per cent in the past week to 0.3 per cent, the equivalent of one in 330. Scientists said the increase in S-gene dropouts suggests there could be hundreds of Omicron cases that are flying under the radar currently
Some 59 cases of Omicron have been confirmed in the UK so far. Twenty-nine infections have been spotted in England, including three in Westminster and two in each of Barnet, Buckinhamshire, Camden, Lewisham and South Northamptonshire. And Scotland's cases today increased by 16 to 29. The first 13 infections were divided between Lanarkshire and the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area. Today, two more cases were spotted in Lanarkshire, five more in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, while three were identified in the Highlands, one in Grampian and five in Forth Valley. And Wales announced this afternoon that its first case has been found in Cardiff
Almost 900,000 people in England had Covid on any given day last week, official data suggests. This chart shows overall Covid rates
While the variant is likely only making up a small number of cases in the UK, it is feared the country could be on the brink of a fresh wave.
In the minutes from SAGE's 97th meeting on Covid on Monday, the group said the emergence of Omicron meant vaccine passports and reducing social contacts through working from home were 'highly relevant'.
The expert panel admitted that the jury is still out on whether the variant will cause more or less severe illness, with conflicting reports coming out of the epicentre in South Africa, where doctors insist most cases are mild but hospital admissions seem to be rising.
The meeting, chaired by England's Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty and Chief Science Officer Sir Patrick Vallance, concluded that the strain's infectiousness was undisputed but evidence of its effect on vaccines is still murky.
They said continued monitoring and 'active' measures would be required until 2026, although they did not stipulate what these may involve.
But they conceded that despite the threat posed by, there is not enough evidence yet to suggest its 32 mutations making it significantly more vaccine evasive.
Scientist won't know the full scale of Omicron's infectiousness, vaccine evasiveness or lethality for another two or three weeks, when they can isolate the virus in a lab and study its biology and test it against the blood of previous-infected or vaccinated people.
But the variant appears to now be spreading domestically in England even though only a few dozen cases have officially been confirmed.
Official data shows that the proportion of positive Covid tests with a mutation synonymous with the highly-evolved strain is on the rise. Like Alpha, or the 'Kent variant', Omicron has a specific alteration which means it can be detected through PCR tests without the need for genomic sequencing.
The proportion of positive tests in England with this so-called S-gene dropout has risen from 0.1 per cent in the past week to 0.3 per cent, the equivalent of one in 330. Scientists said the increase in S-gene dropouts suggests there could be hundreds of Omicron cases that are flying under the radar currently.
Meanwhile, a major British study in booster vaccines found that both Moderna and Pfizer triple the level of T cells in double-jabbed people, which the scientists said made them confident boosters will give very high protection against Omicron. Some 59 cases have been confirmed in Britain so far.
SAGE said bringing back face coverings in all indoor public settings — including restaurants and bars — remained a 'highly relevant' way of countering the variant.
They said: 'Past SAGE advice on measures to reduce transmission remains highly relevant, including but not limited to advice around ventilation, face coverings, hand hygiene, reducing contacts (e.g. by working from home), vaccination certification, and the importance of effective testing, contact tracing and isolation.'
No10 introduced new rules on Monday to make face masks compulsory on public transport and in shops, hairdressers and beauty salons in England.
But it stopped short of bringing back the rules in bars, cafes and restaurants — unlike in Scotland, which has already brought them in.
Vaccine passports at large public events and the return of work from home guidance formed the two other key areas of the Government's winter 'Plan B', which ministers said would be 'enacted if the data suggests further measures are necessary to protect the NHS'.
Data in South Africa shows the R-rate has soared to over three per cent in recent weeks as Omicron took hold in Gauteng province
Covid booster vaccines are likely to offer good protection against the Omicron variant, experts behind a Government-funded new study say. Graph shows: The number of T-cells per 10^6 peripheral blood mononuclear cells in people who have had two doses of the AstraZeneca after a third dose of the Pfizer (red bars) and Moderna (blue bars) vaccines
Cases in the UK have been increasing for the last two days after a further 10 cases of the variant were picked up in England yesterday, taking Britain's total number to 44.But hospitalisations and deaths have continued to fall for weeks, with the increase in cases so far limited mostly to younger, less vulnerable age groups and booster vaccines limiting severe disease in the elderly.
However, members of the Department of Health's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) claimed the onset of Omicron could trigger a wave of infections 'even larger' than previous ones.
Nervtag said: 'The subgroup concludes that if introduced into the UK, B.1.1.529 would likely be capable of initiating a new wave of infections.
'We cannot exclude that this wave would be of a magnitude similar, or even larger, than previous waves.'
That could lead to levels of hospitalisation and death similar to last January if the strain proves to be as evasive as some experts' worse fears.
But SAGE insisted the extent to which the variant stops jabs working as they should is still not clear, with data from South Africa proving difficult to assess given the country's low vaccination rate compared to the UK.
More than 80 per cent of eligible Brits (46.4million) have had two doses of a Covid vaccine, compared to just over half of that in proportion in South Africa, where around 43 per cent have had both jabs.
They suggested booster vaccines are still likely to protect Brits against severe disease, hospitalisation and death with the variant and backed the Government's move to increase booster coverage across Britain.
Boris Johnson announced No10's new strategy to give boosters to every adult in the country by the end of January in an effort to reduce the burden on the NHS caused by the variant.
It comes as public health officials in Gauteng, the epicentre of South Africa’s outbreak, estimate the province’s R rate has surged from less than one to 3.5 in just a month — suggesting that every 10 infected people are passing the virus onto 35 others.
In a separate meeting of SAGE's modelling subgroup Spi-M, scientists also warned that coronavirus would likely put pressure on the NHS for a further five years at least before becoming endemic — weakened to the point of a common cold thanks to jabs and natural immunity.
Covid cases across South Africa have spiralled almost five-fold in a week and hospitalisations rocketed more than 360 per cent.
The country's National Institute for Communicable Diseases recorded another 16,055 Covid cases in the last 24 hours — with the vast majority in epicentre Gauteng province.
This was a jump of 468 per cent on a week ago when 2,828 infections were announced, and up 1,900 per cent on a fortnight ago when 789 infections were registered.
Hospitalisations also surged after 279 were recorded today, compared to 60 last Friday. And deaths more than doubled after 25 were recorded compared to 12 a week ago.
A pre-print from a university in South Africa published yesterday found that the new strain is at least two-and-a-half times better at re-infecting people than all other variants, which may offer an explanation for why it is spreading so fast.
While Omicron's infectiousness seems unquestionable, there is growing uncertainty about how well it can evade vaccines and how severe the illness it causes will be. The World Health Organization (WHO) today revealed zero deaths around the world have been caused by the new variant.
Public health experts in South Africa and the WHO have insisted cases are only mild and vaccines should still be highly effective against the strain, despite a lack of data. And doctors in Norway, where 60 people caught Omicron at a Christmas party, say all those infected have mild symptoms, such as headaches and sore throats.
But UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) epidemiologist Meaghan Kall warned that data currently suggests Omicron may be 'worse' than Delta — although the picture is still emerging. She said she was 'highly sceptical' that the strain causes milder symptoms, saying infections may only appear less severe because people have immunity against other variants, unlike in the first wave.
Meanwhile, a major British study in booster vaccines found that both Moderna and Pfizer triple the level of T cells in double-jabbed people, which the scientists said made them confident boosters will give very high protection against Omicron.
Boris Johnson (pictured today, meeting staff during a visit to a pharmacy in the North Shropshire constituency ahead of the upcoming by-election) has promised to offer all 53million eligible adults a booster Covid vaccine by the end of January to shield the nation from the incoming Omicron wave
South Africa's Covid cases have spiralled almost five-fold in a week after 16,055 new infections were recorded over the last 24 hours. This was also a 1,900 per cent increase on a fortnight ago when some 789 cases were registered. The rocketing cases come as the Omicron variant takes off in the country
Figures from the country's National Institute for Communicable Diseases showed infections are rocketing in Gauteng province at the epicentre of the outbreak. They are also surging in the country's eight other provinces
And Tory Party chairman Oliver Dowden today insisted people should 'keep calm and carry on' with their Christmas plans and parties despite the emergence of the variant — but Britain's pubs, hotels, restaurants and clubs already set to lose billions say 'the damage is already done' as the cancellations continue.
Scientists won't know the full scale of Omicron's infectiousness, vaccine evasiveness or lethality for another two or three weeks, when they can isolate the virus in a lab and study its biology and test it against the blood of previously-infected or vaccinated people.
He said T cell response was not just focused on the spike protein but 'are recognising a much broader range of antigens that might... be common to all of the variants.'
Asked specifically about Omicron, he said: 'Our hope as scientists is that protection against hospitalisation and death will remain intact.'
Despite the hopes afforded by boosters, the SAGE papers today suggested Britain will not be coronavirus-free for at least another five years.
Experts suggested some form of measures will be needed for the next half a decade, with constant monitoring required to prevent future waves after Omicron has finished.
SAGE said: 'SARS-CoV-2 will continue to be a threat to health system function and require active management, of which vaccination and surveillance are key, for at least the next five years.'
Britains vaccines minister Maggie Throup last night told Brits they 'probably will' have to get a coronavirus booster jab every year.
Ms Throup pointed to the Government's latest vaccine purchase of 114million new doses which are due to be delivered in 2022 and 2023 as she said 'it would be wrong of us not to be prepared'.
The comments on the BBC's Question Time programme came after the boss of Pfizer, Dr Albert Bourla, said annual vaccinations 'are likely to be needed'.
The Government announced earlier this week that it had agreed to buy 114million extra doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to be delivered over the next two years.That purchase sparked speculation that Brits could be offered a fourth and even a fifth jab in the coming years.
The group said: 'Booster vaccinations have been shown to produce very strong antibody responses and are likely to provide protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death from most variants at least in the short term, with protection against severe disease remaining higher than protection against infection.
'Increasing coverage of booster vaccinations — as well as increasing coverage of primary courses — is therefore an important defence.'
They continued: 'Other vaccine strategies, such as updated vaccines, may also need to be considered depending on the degree of immune escape. 
The above map shows the percentage change in Covid cases across South Africa today compared to the same time last week. It shows that in eight of the nine provinces infections rocketed by more than 300 per cent week-on-week. The sharpest rise was recorded in Eastern Cape where infections surged 1,068 per cent
The above graphic is published by the NICD every day to show the country's official Covid cases count. The bold figures underneath each province's names are the new infections detected every day, while the number below is the number of active cases
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Some 59 cases of Omicron have been confirmed in the UK so far. Twenty-nine infections have been spotted in England, including three in Westminster and two in each of Barnet, Buckinhamshire, Camden, Lewisham and South Northamptonshire.
And Scotland's cases today increased by 16 to 29. The first 13 infections were divided between Lanarkshire and the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area. Today, two more cases were spotted in Lanarkshire, five more in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, while three were identified in the Highlands, one in Grampian and five in Forth Valley.
And Wales announced this afternoon that its first case has been found in Cardiff.
Nine of Scotland's cases were linked to a single event on November 20 — four days before South Africa alerted the world to Omicron in a move which prompted the world to shut itself of from the nation. The fact the cases were already in the UK suggests transmission within the community is already taking place.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced today that six Omicron cases were linked to a Steps concert that took place on November 22 in Glasgow. There were no cases linked to a second performance the following night.
Laboratories determine whether Covid PCR tests are positive by looking out for certain parts of the virus, one of which is the spike protein on the outside of the cell.
On Omicron, the spike has mutated so much that the tests cannot detect it and only confirm whether other parts of the virus are present in a person’s nose and throat swab to tell if they are infected.
Around half of PCR tests in England are processed by laboratories that use a detection kit that looks for the spike protein and two other parts of the Covid cell.
In the five days leading up to November 28, the proportion of confirmed positive tests that didn't detect the spike protein increased from 0.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent.
These kits usually detect the three parts of the Covid cell, but still confirm someone is infected when they detect any part of the virus.
Failing to spot the spike protein — scientifically known as S-gene dropout or S-gene target failure (SGTF) — has happened before with the Beta varitant, which was first spotted in South Africa, because it also had mutations on the spike protein that tricked the tests into failing to spot it.
Scientists in South Africa, where Omicron has caused an unprecedented surge in cases in, were alerted to Omicron because they spotted the S-gene dropout.
The changes on the spike protein has caused alarm among experts and raised concerns the strain could escape vaccine protection and natural immunity from a previous infection.
But genomic sequencing of positive Covid samples — laboratory analysis that identifies a virus’s genetic make-up, allowing variants and mutations to be detected — remains the only full-proof way to confirm if a Covid infection was caused by Omicron.
Dr Davies tweeted that the increase in S-gene dropout from the usual level of 0.1 per cent to 0.3 percent between November 24 and 28 ‘represents about 60 more SGTF cases than we would expect to see.
‘Given that Omicron causes SGTF, while the otherwise globally dominant Delta variant doesn't, these "excess" SGTFs are most likely Omicron cases, at least some of which have yet to be confirmed via sequencing.
‘However, this number will probably go up, as the last 2-3 days of data are still filtering in.
He tweeted: ‘The fact that there has been an increase in SGTF isn't necessarily surprising — we have 22 confirmed Omicron cases in England as of today, so there was going to be an SGTF signal sooner or later. This isn't meant to be shocking news.’
The apparent increase in Omicron cases could suggest the variant is being spread in the community, or signal that more international arrivals — who are required to take a PCR test within 48 hours of arriving in the UK — are testing positive.
Dr Davies added: ‘In a manner of speaking, we have been lucky in the UK that first Alpha had SGTF, then Delta didn't, and now Omicron does.
‘Each time, we have been able to use the presence or absence of SGTF to detect probable VOC [variant of concern] cases a few days before the sequencing data has been available.
‘The SGTF signal also makes it easier to monitor the severity of a new variant, since it gives us another way to classify a case's lineage and then to see whether a given lineage is more or less likely to lead to severe disease.’
And NERVTAG, a committee that advises the Government on the threat posed by new and emerging respiratory viruses, today said there are no other Covid variants in South Africa that cause S-gene dropout.
All of the S-gene dropout samples sequenced in South Africa went on to be confirmed Omicron cases, so it is 'currently a reliable marker of the variant'.
Meanwhile, it was revealed today that the R rate in Gauteng, the epicentre of South Africa’s outbreak, has soared from less than one to 3.5 in just a month — suggesting that every 10 infected people are passing the virus onto 35 others.
It comes after data from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) released yesterday evening showed 11,535 new Covid cases were recorded in the previous 24 hours, a jump of 368 per cent on last Thursday when 2,465 new infections were registered.
Some 51,402 people in the country took a Covid test and 22.4 per cent of them tested positive for the virus. For comparison, 38,075 per cent of tests taken on the same day last week and 6.5 per cent were positive.
Graph shows: The percentage of tests coming back positive in the whole of South Africa since the start of the pandemic averaged over seven days (red line) and on a daily basis (blue line)
Graph shows: The seven-day average number of cases in provinces across South Africa. Infections are spiking in Guateng (dark green line), the epicentre of the Omicron wave in South Africa
Graph shows: The seven-day average number of cases per day recorded in provinces across South Africa since the end of October. Infections increased to more than 1,000 per day in Guateng (dark green line), the epicentre of the Omicron wave
Meanwhile, hospitalisations rose by 180 per cent in the last seven days. Some 98 people were admitted last Thursday, while 274 Covid-infected patients required hospital care yesterday.
But Covid deaths have decreased from 114 last Wednesday to 44 today, marking a 61 per cent fall. Trends in hospitalisations and deaths lag two to three weeks behind the pattern in cases, due to the time it takes to become seriously unwell after catching the virus.
And a preprint published by scientists from the Stellenbosch University, near Cape Town, suggests Omicron is at least 2.4 times more likely to reinfect someone than the original strain.
Government researchers say there has been 35,670 reinfections since the beginning of the pandemic and the risk of reinfection fell to 0.7 during the Beta-fuelled second wave last winter and the third Delta surge this summer compared to the first wave.
But the risk of catching the virus again has risen for the first time, jumping to 2.4.
Scientists from the Stellenbosch University, near Cape Town, said the findings suggest Omicron is able to evade protection people have from a previous infection, unlike the Beta and Delta variants that were suppressed by natural immunity.
They said the data has important public health implications, especially in countries that have previously had high rates of infection.
And 'urgent questions remain' over whether Omicron can evade vaccine protection just as well as natural immunity, and if so, whether this impacts hospitalisations and deaths.
Microbiologist at Reading University Dr Simon Clarke said the data was the 'first indication' that Omicron could get around immunity from previous Covid infection.
He said: 'There are a few caveats in this work, such as not having definitively confirmed that it was indeed Omicron that was causing the reinfection, but they were able to determine that the increased transmission of Beta or Delta variants was not a result of immune evasion.
'There is no indication as to how this immune evasion happens, although it can be presumed to be because of decreased antibody binding to Omicron's mutated spike protein.'
He added: 'Omicron has blown a big hole in the controversial argument that we should simply allow the infection to spread in an attempt to create immunity.
'Herd immunity which now seems like nothing more than a pipe dream. We await a further indication as to whether Omicron has any ability to evade vaccine induced immunity.'
Scientists are working at breakneck speed to establish whether Omicron is more transmissible and deadly than other mutant strains. But they say it could still be at least a week before reliable estimates start to emerge.
Early reports on the ground in southern Africa suggested that most cases were mild or completely asymptomatic.
But there has been no age breakdown meaning it is impossible to know whether this is because the strain is simply yet to spread to older people.
The WHO has repeatedly claimed that it is a mild strain. Christian Lindmeier, a spokesperson for the global agency, today told reporters in Geneva: 'I have not seen reports of Omicron-related deaths yet.
'We're collecting all the evidence and we will find much more evidence as we go along.
'The more countries... keep testing people, and looking specifically into the Omicron variant, we will also find more cases, more information, and, hopefully not, but also possibly deaths.'
And doctors on the ground in Norway, where 60 people fell ill with suspected Omicron after attending a Christmas party last week, said those infected are currently experiencing mild symptoms.
Dr Tine Ravlo, chief physician for the district where the outbreak took place, said the patients are experiencing headaches and sore throats, broadly consistent with what is being reported from South Africa.
Only one of the cases has so-far been confirmed as Omicron using genetic sequencing techniques, with 10-15 cases declared probable Omicron.
But all cases are assumed to be the new variant, with the results of more sequencing tests expected soon.
Mr Ravlo said the 'incubation period' of the new variant — the time from infection to first symptoms — appears to be two to four days.
That is far less than the seven to 14 days for most other Covid variants, and would potentially make outbreaks easier to spot — though the data is still preliminary.
Mr Ravlo added that, so far, all infections in Oslo have been traced to the Christmas party and there is no evidence of wider community spread.
But Dr Kall said she is 'sceptical' about claims the new strain causes less severe disease.
Writing on Twitter, she said: 'I am highly sceptical it could be more mild. I think the best case is it's equivalent in severity to Delta... but you'll see milder symptoms now, than Delta when it emerged, because many more people have immunity now.'
However, promising data from the UK’s COV-BOOST study suggests the body's T-cell immune response after a third Covid injection will protect against hospitalisation and death from Omicron.
The findings also support the UK's decision to use Pfizer or Moderna as boosters, with mRNA jabs turbocharging the body’s antibody and T-cell responses the most.
T-cells are thought to provide longer lasting and broader protection than antibodies which deliver an initial higher boost of protection but also see that defence fade faster over time.
Professor Saul Faust, trial lead and director of the NIHR Clinical Research Facility at University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, said: 'Even though we don't properly understand its relation to long-term immunity, the T cell data is showing us that it does seem to be broader against all the variant strains.’
The provides ‘hope that a variant strain of the virus might be able to be handled, certainly for hospitalisation and death if not prevention of infection, by the current vaccines', Professor Faust said.
It comes as Tory Party chairman Oliver Dowden today insisted people should 'keep calm and carry on' with their Christmas plans and parties despite Omicron - but Britain's pubs, hotels, restaurants and clubs already set to lose billions say 'the damage is already done' as the cancellations continue.
Mr Dowden told Sky News: 'The message to people, I think, is fairly straightforward - which is keep calm, carry on with your Christmas plans. We've put the necessary restrictions in place, but beyond that keep calm and carry on.
'I understand that people have concerns around the new variant. That's why the Government has taken the sort of measures that we've already outlined ... we think those are sufficient at this stage and, beyond that, people should continue with their plans as intended.'
Amid confusion about what to do, many of Britain's biggest employers including the NHS, banks and tech firms have axed festive bashes completely or taken them online. It is now said to be a 50/50 split.
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