UK's Covid R rate drops back down and is no higher than 0.8: Outbreak continues to shrink in England as cases fall by a FIFTH in a week - but they may be rising in Scotland (and Nicola Sturgeon is still managing to speed up ending lockdown)
- Covid Symptom Study estimates there are now 5,494 people developing Covid-19 every day in the UK
- This was down a third from from 8,111 last week after cases hung between 9,000-10,000 throughout February
- Study leader Professor Tim Spector said 'the darkest days are behind us' with falls in deaths and admissionsBritain's Covid R rate today dropped back down to 0.8 after a blip saw it rise last week, as yet more figures added to the mountain of evidence that the worst of the pandemic is over.
No10's scientific advisory panel SAGE estimated the reproduction rate — the average number of people infected by each person with coronavirus — is between 0.6 and 0.8 across the UK and England, meaning the outbreak is still shrinking.
Office for National Statistics experts claimed today that the total number of people infected with Covid in England fell by a fifth to just over 200,000 last week — the equivalent of one in 270 people.
And data from a major symptom-tracking app today claimed 4,200 people are becoming ill with the disease every day — down by a third in a week. Professor Tim Spector, a King's College London epidemiologist behind the study, said he believes the 'darkest days are behind us'.
But the rate at which the outbreak is shrinking in England has slowed down even though total cases and daily new cases have fallen to levels not seen since September. For comparison, outbreaks in Scotland and Northern Ireland appear to have stagnated and may have risen slightly, according to the ONS.
Nicola Sturgeon today eased lockdown restrictions in Scotland to allow four adults from two households to meet outside, despite figures suggesting a rise in cases. The First Minister has insisted she will be led by data not dates, but has still sped up her plans to relax measures in the face of a stagnating outbreak.
Boris Johnson, on the other hand, has refused to accelerate England's calendar for easing measures despite Covid cases continuing to fall. The figure's will pile even more pressure on No10 to relax lockdown quicker in England, amid mounting Tory fury at the Prime Minister's reluctance to move quicker. He has also promised to be led by 'data not dates' in his roadmap back to normality.
Wales will make the same step from tomorrow, with First Minister Mark Drakeford set to announce later today that the 'stay at home' order will be dropped in favour of a 'stay local' message. Hairdressers will also be permitted to reopen from Monday.
But despite cases continuing to drop and the vaccine drive running smoothly in England, current rules mean only two people from two households can meet outside, with groups of six from two homes not permitted to gather until March 29.
The Office for National Statistics survey found that the total number of people infected with coronavirus fell again in the most recent week, to 200,600 - the lowest since the start of October
Just 5,494 people became ill with Covid every day last week— down a third from the 8,111 figure last week according to the Covid Symptom Study, run by ZOE and King's College London
In a day of Covid news:
- All but one London borough saw infection rates drop last week - with some parts of the capital seeing cases fall by half;
- Nicola Sturgeon eased lockdown in Scotland to allow up to four people to meet from two households;
- Mark Drakeford will end 12-week 'stay at home' message in Wales from tomorrow meaning up to four adults can meet outside with barbers and primary schools opening on Monday;
- World Health Organization declares there is 'no reason' for countries to stop using Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine;
- Figures showed 50,000 fewer men were urgently referred for suspected prostate cancer during the pandemic as waiting lists hit record high;
- More of us are venturing outside and feeling happier as vaccine rollout continues at pace.
SAGE's today said the rate of spread is thought to be between 0.6 and 0.8 - meaning every 10 people with coronavirus infect six or eight others - in the UK.
This was also the level given for England, and the regions the East of England, London, Midlands, North West and South East.
It was slightly higher in the North East and Yorkshire, where it is likely between 0.7 and 0.9, and slightly lower in the South West where it was between 0.5 and 0.8.
No regions had an R rate over 1, suggesting the second wave is still shrinking in all areas.
Separate data from the ONS, however, suggested that the outbreak was stagnating in some parts of the country.
It found an estimated 0.37 per cent of people in England had Covid last week - equivalent to one in 270 people being infected. This was down from the 0.45 per cent the week before, or one in 220 having the virus.
In Wales they found 0.27 per cent had the virus - one in 365 - which was also a drop from last week when the rate was 0.35, or one in 285.
But in Scotland it went up, suggesting their outbreak is stagnating. ONS data showed the positivity rate was 0.31 per cent last week - one in 320 people - up from 0.3 per cent the week before - or one in 335 people.
The figures came as Ms Sturgeon sped up her timetable for relaxing restrictions in Scotland. It has piled pressure on Mr Johnson to also bring England out of restrictions earlier, as cases continue to fall.
Broken down by regions of England, the data showed the infection rate was highest in the West Midlands (0.5 per cent), followed by Yorkshire and the Humber, the South East and the North East (all 0.4 per cent).
In the South West, North West, East Midlands, East of England and London the positivity rate was 0.3 per cent.
Sarah Crofts, senior statistician for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: 'We are seeing a mixed picture across the UK this week.
'Infection levels in England and Wales have continued to decrease in the week ending March 6 but appear to be levelling off in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
'It's reassuring to see infection levels in the majority of English regions also continuing to decrease – however, it's important for us to remain cautious and closely monitor those regions that are not showing a clear decrease.
'These are in the south of England, Yorkshire and the Humber and the West Midlands.'
Professor Spector, of King's College London, struck a note of optimism as the fall in case numbers was matched by similar drops in hospital admissions and deaths.
He said: 'The UK has come a long way since the start of the year, and it's great to see new case rates falling to levels that are among the lowest in Europe.
'With 22million vaccinations administered, deaths and admissions falling at similar speeds, I believe we can be hopeful the darkest days are behind us.
'The data shows regional changes appearing with lower rates in the south.
'The ZOE app is built to rapidly detect new outbreaks and novel symptoms from new strains so we will be closely monitoring all the regions and symptoms, particularly now schools have reopened.'
The study estimates one in 613 people suffered from Covid symptoms last week, with 4,225 people becoming ill per day in England, compared to 592 in Scotland, 350 in Northern Ireland and 327 in Wales.
Rates were lowest in the South West of England, with 250 registering symptoms per day, and the North East, where just 298 became ill each day.
They were highest in the North West (811) and East Midlands (706), while London saw just 581 symptomatic cases per day, falling 35 per cent from 890 in the previous week.
The R rate, measuring the number of people infected by each person with the virus, is close to 0.8 in Scotland and England and 0.9 in Wales. An R of one means the outbreak is neither growing nor shrinking.
The findings from the symptom-tracking app — used by millions of Brits — echo a catalogue of separate data that shows the worst days of the pandemic are over.
Test and Trace data yesterday revealed Covid infections in England fell by a third last week. Public Health England statistics also showed cases had dropped in all but six authorities. And MailOnline's analysis of official data found the Isles of Scilly has recorded no positive tests since the second wave took off in September.
SAGE will publish an updated official estimate of the R rate later today. Last week it was thought to be somewhere between 0.7 and 0.9.
With a third of the population now at last partially immunised and Covid deaths in free-fall, there is increasing calls for lockdown to be lifted sooner.
Under the Government's cautious roadmap out of restrictions, curbs will be in place until June 21 at the earliest.
Lockdown-sceptics were further emboldened yesterday as separate official figures revealed England now has a lower infection rate than Scotland for the first time since April.
Nicola Sturgeon has already sped-up the easing of lockdown north of the border and Wales will drop its 'stay at home' order tomorrow in a major relaxation of the country's lockdown.
Gatherings can now take place in any outdoor space in Scotland, including private gardens, after Nicola Sturgeon announced a 'cautious acceleration' of her roadmap this week.
Unlike Boris Johnson, the First Minister is prepared to tweak her blueprint if the data allows for a quicker end to curbs.
Children aged 12-17 will also be able to meet in groups of four, but they do not all have to come from just two households.
This is the lockdown easing roadmap for England. People won't be allowed to meet in groups of six from two different households until March 29 under the plan
The East Midlands and North West have the highest rates of prevalence at 706 and 811 new cases per day respectively
It comes after separate Government data today revealed only one London borough suffered a spike in Covid cases last week, with the capital's second wave remaining firmly in retreat.
Department of Health's most-up-to-date data showed 31 out of 32 local authorities saw their infection rate dip over the seven-day spell to March 6.
Hammersmith and Fulham recorded the sharpest drop in Covid cases, after they halved in a week. It was followed by Haringey, Brent, Bromley and Bexley, where infections plummeted by more than 40 per cent.
Kingston-upon-Thames was the only London borough to see cases tick upwards, after they rose by 28 per cent last week to 50.1 positive tests per 100,000 residents.
Public health officials in the capital credited the 'heroic efforts of Londoners' for the nosediving infection rates last week, but warned they must continue to stay at home and follow the rules.
There is a delay of at least a week between someone catching the virus, developing symptoms severe enough to get a test and receiving a positive result, creating a lag in the figures.
It comes after a slew of data today offered yet more proof that Britain has turned the tide on the pandemic, with infections continuing to drop across the country. Just six out of 149 local authorities in England saw Covid cases fall last week, according to Public Health England.
The Department of Health offers swabs to anyone who comes forward for a test, and publishes anonymised data on how many people test positive in each borough - allowing public health officials to track the outbreak.
The figures are seen as a good measure of the spread of the virus in each area, but experts warn they miss asymptomatic infections - when someone has the virus but does not suffer any symptoms - which are thought to account for at least a third of all cases.
London's Covid hotspot - the borough with the most infections - was Hounslow, with 71.1 cases per 100,000 in the week ending March 6.
But this was still a 26 per cent drop from the previous week, when the rate was 92 per 100,000.
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