'If the vaccination programme continues to unfold at its current pace – and lockdown is eased gradually as a function of declining prevalence – we might attain herd immunity by as early as July. 'This encouraging (perhaps optimistic) forecast accommodates fluctuations in viral transmissibility. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about transmission risk that should nuance any interpretation of these predictions.
'These long-term predictions reflect a material response to the third lockdown that is clearly evident in declining incidence, hospital admissions and daily death rates. At present, the reproduction ratio is estimated to be the lowest it has been since late April but is likely to rise gently again as restrictions are eased over the forthcoming months.'
Professor Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, said at a Downing Street press conference last night that it now looks as though all over-50s will need to be immunised in order to stop hospitals loading up with Covid patients again.
He said: 'If you look at the situation for people that have gone into hospital only 54 per cent of all the people who go into hospital are over that age [70].
'So what this means is that once we vaccinated down to 70 and above – plus those who care for them, frontline NHS staff and frontline care workers – we should significantly reduce the number of deaths.
'But we will reduce by a much smaller number the number of people going into hospital...
'If we vaccinate all the way down to the people over 50, and those who have actually got pre-existing health conditions, you then get through virtually all the people who have a high chance of dying.
'So this is around 98 per cent of those who die are in that group. Importantly around 80 per cent, just over 80 per cent of all of those who go into hospital.'
Professor Whitty added: 'So the first wave which is the aim is to complete on the 15th of February we would expect a situation where we can stop a very high proportion of the deaths but rather a smaller proportion of the pressure on the NHS - those very large numbers in hospital.
'As you go onto the next wave, down to those over 50 we have further in roads into reducing deaths and also significantly reduce the pressure on the NHS.'
Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi appeared to indicate this morning that the government is looking at the top nine risk categories as the trigger point for a widespread downgrading of measures. So far the PM has only said that he will unveil a route map out of lockdown on February 22, after the first four most vulnerable groups have been covered.
SIGN OF DEATH RATES STARTING TO DECLINE IN OVER-80S, SCIENTIST CLAIMS
Professor Daniel Howdon, a health economist at the University of Leeds, revealed on Twitter that the fatality rate among over-80s appears to be falling fast in the wake of the vaccination programme.
He said: 'All 80+ groups are showing quite big (~25%) falls in the CFR [case fatality ratio] vs 75-79 group. All very tentative for now but I think of interest.'
Professor Howdon, using Public Health England data, noted that the proportion of Covid-positive people over the age of 90 who were dying appeared to have dropped from 46.8 per cent at January's peak to 34.7 per cent in the most recent week.
In 85 to 89-year-olds it fell from 40.6 per cent to 30.5 per cent, he said, in 80 to 84-year-olds it dropped from 32.9 to 24.4 per cent, and in 75 to 79-year-olds from 20.6 to 17.6 per cent.
A graph shared by Professor Howdon showed how the death rate among 85 to 89-year-old people started declining in January even when the outbreak was around its peak, which he said could be linked to vaccine coverage
He said that less pressure on hospitals or longer lags between people catching the virus and dying could account for these effects but also suggested it was 'not too unreasonable' to expect to see an effect from vaccines.
Over-80s have been getting vaccinated since December 8, with more than 80 per cent of them now having had a first dose.
Professor Howdon added he was 'going to keep an eye on it. Even if this isn't an effect now, if vaccination reduces deaths more than cases then we should see one soon enough.'Mr Zahawi declined to give a date for when the first nine groups in the priority list will have received their vaccine, but said people could 'do the maths'.
Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Nadhim Zahawi said: 'We will set out our target (for vaccinating groups 5-9) after we have hit our February 15 target.
'But you can do the maths. We did 600,000 in a single day – the deployment infrastructure that we've built can do as much vaccines as we get supply, so the limiting factor will be vaccine supply.
'You can see that in the next 10 or so days, we've got to do another almost touching five million and so if we keep that rate up we will very quickly go down the list of the top nine.'
Pressed on whether that meant it would take another 35 days from February 15 to have jabbed all 31 million people in the first nine cohorts, Mr Zahawi replied: 'That assumes the supply, so I don't want to commit to a date without going through it with a very fine toothcomb with the whole team, because our limiting factor is the supply of vaccines ultimately.
'With any manufacturing process, especially one that is new, there are challenges around that, as we've seen in Europe and as we saw in the early days in the UK as well.'
Meanwhile, SAGE member Professor Andrew Hayward gave a similar message as he said there could be a 'significant return to normality' after all over-50s are vaccinated.
'Once the most vulnerable people, particularly those over 50 and those with chronic illnesses, are vaccinated then yes I think we can see a significant return to normality,' he said.
However, Prof Hayward said he still hoped the UK will be 'more or less back to normal for the summer'.
Experts have warned that lockdown must not be lifted too soon or an uncontrollable third wave of Covid could begin and kill thousands more people, smashing through efforts to protect the country with vaccines.
Warwick University experts on the Government's SAGE committee said in a paper published last week that easing restrictions too soon could case deaths to spike back above 1,000 per day, even with effective vaccines in play.
They explained that even though the vaccines we have appear to work very well, not everyone can or will accept the jab, and no vaccine can ever protect 100 per cent of the people who do get it.
People who couldn't be vaccinated for medical reasons – those who have an extremely weak immune system, for example – will not be protected, and neither will people who turned the jab down, or those in the proportion of people who it fails to protect. A 95 per cent effective vaccine, for example, would still allow five out of 100 people to get Covid-19.
OXFORD JAB CUTTING TRANSMISSION 'COULD SAVE TENS OF THOUSANDS OF LIVES'
Oxford's Covid vaccine could save tens of thousands of lives because it can cut the likelihood of catching coronavirus and passing it on by around two thirds, scientists say.
Modelling produced by SAGE members from Warwick University predicted that more than 150,000 more people could die in 2021 if lockdown rules were lifted in March or April and vaccines did not stop people from spreading the virus.
But with a 60 per cent infection-blocking capability – slightly lower than the 67 per cent that Oxford claims its vaccine is capable of – this could be halved, saving tens of thousands of lives.
This is critical because uptake will not be 100 per cent and not everyone who gets the vaccine will be protected by it, meaning the virus will still be a danger to some.
Lifting lockdown after vaccinating people with jabs that don't stop the spread, the Warwick experts warned, would lead to 'an uncontrolled wave of infection in which only those successfully immunised will escape.'
Research published in January by the University of Warwick suggested that if a vaccine could prevent 65% of transmission, as Oxford now says its vaccine does, the country's death rate could be kept to the low hundreds per day or fewer from late March onwards if the rule of six is kept in place. The model is based on a large majority of the population having a vaccine with that level of effectiveness
And even doing so with the Oxford vaccine rolled out to millions of people could still lead to a spike of 1,500 deaths per day if lockdown was lifted in February in exchange for the rule of six, or 2,000 per day if lockdown ends completely in July.
Looking at how the daily death counts could change over the course of 2021, the experts found that only vaccines blocking 85 per cent of infections, and a gradual release of lockdown rules over the course of the year, would stop thousands more from dying.
Jabs that block 60 per cent of infections might still allow the peak of daily deaths to hit 2,000 per day if lockdown was lifted gradually but completely from February to August, they found. The peak would likely come in September.
The daily death count would be closer to 2,500 with vaccines that didn't block infections, or around 700 for ones that blocked 85 per cent. Those peaks would be earlier, in the summer.
On easing lockdown over the course of the entire year, into around December 2021, would lead to a peak of just under 1,500 deaths per day for the 60 per cent infection-blocking jab, with the peak in January 2022.The discovery that Oxford's vaccine appears to cut the risk of someone catching coronavirus and passing it on by two thirds is promising and suggests it could slash transmission even between people with mild symptoms or none, which would dampen a third wave.
But the Warwick experts, in research produced before the vaccination programme hit its current levels of success, warned that at least 50,000 people are likely to die in 2021 and this could be much higher if rules are lifted too soon.
The wrote in their paper: 'Even maintaining [early September] levels of NPI [non-pharmaceutical interventions; social distancing rules] control and having a highly efficacious vaccine we estimate over fifty thousand deaths are likely to occur from January 2021 due to the slow decline in cases from its current high level.
'Early relaxation of control measures or low infection efficacy can lead to a pronounced subsequent wave of infection.
'If we wish to completely lift all restrictions once both phases of the vaccination campaign are complete, we predict a substantial outbreak with a large number of associated deaths.
'When the vaccine is not infection blocking, removing NPIs triggers an uncontrolled wave of infection in which only those successfully immunised will escape.'
They predicted that between 99,000 and 123,000 more people could die in 2021 if lockdown and social distancing come to an end, even in an 'optimistic' vaccine scenario.
In less gloomy news, however, some experts claim they are already starting to see the effects of vaccination in the death rates of the most elderly people in the country.
Professor Daniel Howdon, a health economist at the University of Leeds, revealed on Twitter that the fatality rate among over-80s appears to be falling fast in the wake of the vaccination programme.
He said: 'All 80+ groups are showing quite big (~25%) falls in the CFR [case fatality ratio] vs 75-79 group. All very tentative for now but I think of interest.'
Professor Howdon, using Public Health England data, noted that the proportion of Covid-positive people over the age of 90 who were dying appeared to have dropped from 46.8 per cent at January's peak to 34.7 per cent in the most recent week.
In 85 to 89-year-olds it fell from 40.6 per cent to 30.5 per cent, he said, in 80 to 84-year-olds it dropped from 32.9 to 24.4 per cent, and in 75 to 79-year-olds from 20.6 to 17.6 per cent.
He said that less pressure on hospitals or longer lags between people catching the virus and dying could account for these effects but also suggested it was 'not too unreasonable' to expect to see an effect from vaccines.
Professor Howdon added he was 'going to keep an eye on it. Even if this isn't an effect now, if vaccination reduces deaths more than cases then we should see one soon enough.'
Tory anger is mounting over 'goalpost shifting' on lockdown today as ministers and scientists suggested all over-50s should get vaccines before any 'significant' easing.
Pressure is growing on Boris Johnson to commit to a major relaxation of the draconian measures within weeks, after the UK's rollout of jabs hit the milestone of 10million people covered.
But there is alarm that the bar for allowing the economy to get back up and running is being lifted, with dire warnings about the threat of mutant coronavirus added to concerns about the strain on the NHS.
Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi appeared to indicate this morning that the government is looking at the top nine risk categories - around 32million people - as the trigger point for a widespread downgrading of measures. So far the PM has only said that he will unveil a route map out of lockdown on February 22, after the first four most vulnerable groups have been covered.
Mr Zahawi refused to give a date for when the nine categories in phase one of the rollout will be complete.
Meanwhile, SAGE member Professor Andrew Hayward gave a similar message as he said there could be a 'significant return to normality' after all over-50s are vaccinated.
BENEFITS OF VACCINE SCHEME COULD SHOW WITHIN WEEKS
Experts on the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group of volunteers say that the effects of the Covid vaccine programme could start to be seen within weeks.
The number of people being admitted to hospital with Covid-19 and dying of it could begin to fall from mid-February, they predicted, and then the numbers of people dying could begin to come down from early March.
They said: 'We know from the medical trial data that it is possible to be infected up to two weeks after the first shot.'
And it may now only take a couple more weeks for the effects of mass vaccination to show through in data. Now that more than 10million have had a vaccine – one in every five adults in the UK – and around half of them were vaccinated two weeks ago so now have protection against Covid, there may be enough coverage to impact on the spread of the virus and rates of serious illness.
The report published by the Actuaries Response Group estimated that vaccination would impact data showing cases after 20 days (although this would be a small impact because the numbers are much larger), for hospitalisations it would show after 26 days, for hospital deaths 34 days and for officially recorded deaths, 47 days.
It said: 'There are many variables which will impact the actual benefits that we see as the vaccine rolls out, most notably the speed of the roll-out, but also the vaccine effectiveness and the take-up in the various groups offered the vaccine.
'The other factor is the overall infectivity in the country – all of the results we show are expressed as proportional reductions from any given starting point, rather than as absolute figures.
'Nevertheless, if the programme goes reasonably to plan it can be expected that there will be an 85 per cent to 90 per cent reduction in Covid-19 deaths by the middle of March, although the reporting of this will take a little longer to emerge completely.' 'Once the most vulnerable people, particularly those over 50 and those with chronic illnesses, are vaccinated then yes I think we can see a significant return to normality,' he said.
However, Professor Hayward said he still hoped the UK will be 'more or less back to normal for the summer'.
There were claims today that Chancellor Rishi Sunak is again leading calls within Cabinet for lockdown to be eased as early as possible - in contrast to the more cautious tone adopted by Mr Johnson recently.
A supporter of Mr Sunak told the Telegraph: 'Rishi is concerned that the scientists have been moving the goalposts in recent weeks. It's no longer just about hospitalisations and protecting the NHS but cases and case numbers.'
They said Mr Sunak was adamant this third national squeeze must be the final lockdown and heralded it a 'fat lady sings moment' - the point at which Britain draws a line under a cycle of lockdowns for good.
Treasury sources played down the reports this morning, insisting those are 'not things he has said'. But they were hailed by lockdown-sceptic Tory MPs, who said he was 'quite right'.
Asked on Today whether the government was shifting the goalposts on when lockdown can ease, Mr Zahawi said: 'I think you've got to make sure your vaccination programme has protected the top nine categories in phase one...'
He reiterated that the PM will set out a roadmap and the intention is for restrictions to loosen 'gradually' from March 8, starting with schools.
Mr Zahawi declined to give a date for when the first nine groups in the priority list will have received their vaccine, but said people could 'do the maths'.
Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Nadhim Zahawi said: 'We will set out our target (for vaccinating groups 5-9) after we have hit our February 15 target.
'But you can do the maths. We did 600,000 in a single day – the deployment infrastructure that we've built can do as much vaccines as we get supply, so the limiting factor will be vaccine supply.
'You can see that in the next 10 or so days, we've got to do another almost touching five million and so if we keep that rate up we will very quickly go down the list of the top nine.'
Pressed on whether that meant it would take another 35 days from February 15 to have jabbed all 31 million people in the first nine cohorts, Mr Zahawi replied: 'That assumes the supply, so I don't want to commit to a date without going through it with a very fine toothcomb with the whole team, because our limiting factor is the supply of vaccines ultimately.
'With any manufacturing process, especially one that is new, there are challenges around that, as we've seen in Europe and as we saw in the early days in the UK as well.'
All but THREE local authorities in England saw Covid cases fall last week with positive tests in care homes down by a third
By Connor Boyd, Assistant Health Editor for MailOnline
All but three local authorities in England saw Covid infections fall last week and cases in care homes dropped by a third, official figures showed today.
All key metrics now indicate the darkest days of the winter crisis are behind us, with the number of Covid hospital patients in general beds dropping to its lowest level for a month and in every region, and virus deaths falling by a quarter in a week.
Public Health England data published today reveal 146 out of 149 areas (98 per cent) recorded a drop in weekly positive tests in the seven days to January 31, with cases falling in all English regions for the second week running.
Infection rates plunged by more than 33 per cent in a third of local authorities and fell sharply by over 25 per cent in another 35 places. Cases are also down in every age group.
Encouraging figures also show the number of suspected outbreaks in English care homes dropped by more than a third last week, falling from 504 to 321. This, combined with the fact 80 per cent of care home residents have now been vaccinated, suggest officials are finally getting a grip on the resurgence of the virus in the sector.
Meanwhile, latest NHS England data published today showed there were 5,283 patients in ICUs across the country on the last day of January, down slightly on the previous week, when there were 5,446 beds in use.
It is significant because it marks the first time ICU capacity has eased since the highly-infectious Kent Covid variant started to spiral out of control in December, suggesting the winter wave has passed its peak and the NHS will not be overwhelmed.
Meanwhile, the latest Government Test and Trace report published today showed coronavirus infections fell by 41 per cent in the last two weeks, in another sign the crisis is firmly in retreat. The scheme reported 196,257 positive tests in the week up to January 27, down from 333,802 in the seven days to January 13.
Despite all figures trending in the right direction, there is mounting Tory anger over 'goalpost shifting' on lockdown as ministers and SAGE scientists suggested case numbers need to come down further before any 'significant' easing, shifting away from No10's original 'protect the NHS, save lives' mantra.
Pressure is growing on Boris Johnson to commit to a major relaxation of the draconian measures within weeks, with all the key indicators falling and the 10million most vulnerable people already injected with their first vaccine dose. But there is alarm that the bar for allowing the economy to get back up and running is being lifted, with dire warnings about the threat of mutant coronavirus added to concerns about the strain on the NHS.
Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi appeared to indicate this morning that the government is looking at the top nine risk categories - around 32million people - as the trigger point for a widespread downgrading of measures. SAGE member Professor Andrew Hayward gave a similar message as he said there could be a 'significant return to normality' after all over-50s are vaccinated.
So far the PM has only said that he will unveil a route map out of lockdown on February 22, after the first four most vulnerable groups have been covered. There were claims today that Chancellor Rishi Sunak is again leading calls within Cabinet for lockdown to be eased as early as possible - in contrast to the more cautious tone adopted by Mr Johnson recently.
Encouraging figures show the number of positive tests recorded in English care homes dropped by more than a third last week, falling from 504 to 321. This, combined with the fact every eligible care home resident has now been vaccinated, suggest officials are finally getting a grip on the resurgence of the virus in the sector
Latest NHS England data published today showed there were 5,283 patients in ICUs across the country on the last day of January, down slightly on the previous week, when there were 5,446 beds in use. It is significant because it marks the first time ICU capacity has eased since the highly-infectious Kent Covid variant started to spiral out of control in December
The only three areas in England to see rises in the past week were Torbay, where it increased by 0.9 per cent to 169 per 100,000, Gateshead in Tyne and Wear, where the rate climbed 3.9 per cent to 210 and in Rutland where there was an uniquely large rise. The East Midlands county recorded a 33 per cent increase, with the rate now 230 per 100,000.
It is thought that a Covid outbreak in HMP Stocken in Stretton could be partly to blame. It has not been confirmed how many have tested positive for the coronavirus. The category C men's prison has around 950 inmates.
Despite the country heading in the right direction, the NHS figures show 23 trusts across England did not have a single spare intensive care bed on January 31. These included University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, one of the largest trusts in England, along with Sandwell & West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust.
But the problem was not confined to the Midlands, as major trusts all over the country — including in Merseyside, London, Derbyshire and the home counties — also reported having no spare critical care capacity. Even hospitals in the South West, which had managed to avoid the worst of the pandemic throughout 2020, were seeing their ICUs pushed to the brink, with Portsmouth Hospitals University National Health Service Trust and the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust recording 100 per cent occupancy.
Despite lockdown starting to bring Britain's winter wave under control, ICUs nationally are still almost 70 per cent busier than they have been at any time over the past five years. For comparison, there were 3,034 critically-ill patients at the same time last winter, and the average over the last four years stood at 3,183.
There are still about 35,000 people in hospital with Covid across the UK, which is still far higher than the 20,000 at the peak last spring. About 3,700 virus patients are fighting for their lives in ICU, compared to around 3,300 during the darkest days last April.
More positive statistics show the number of patients waiting longer than an hour to be handed over from ambulance teams to A&E staff at hospitals in England has fallen to its lowest level this winter.
A total of 2,339 delays of over 60 minutes were recorded across all acute trusts in the seven days to January 31, according to PA news agency analysis of NHS England figures.
This compares with 3,283 in the previous week, and 5,513 in the seven days to January 10 – the highest weekly figure so far this winter.
University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust reported the highest number last week for an individual trust (214 delays of more than 60 minutes), followed by the Royal Wolverhampton Trust (125) and University Hospitals Bristol & Weston NHS Foundation Trust (118).
A handover delay does not always mean a patient has waited in the ambulance. They may have been moved into an A&E department, but staff were not available to complete the handover.
The figures come as the number of hospital patients in England with Covid-19 dropped to its lowest level for a month. A total of 26,374 hospital patients were recorded in English hospitals as of 8am on February 3 – the lowest since 24,957 on January 3.
Patient numbers peaked at 34,336 on January 18, since when they have fallen by 23 per cent. The number of hospital admissions of people with Covid-19 has also decreased. A total of 2,347 admissions were recorded on February 1, down 22 per cent compared with January 1.
The figures suggest tighter restrictions on people’s movements and activities introduced across England after Christmas, culminating in the nationwide lockdown from January 5, are continuing to have an impact. Hospitals in some areas of the country are still experiencing pressures, however.
Despite the figures show 23 NHS trusts across England did not have a single spare intensive care bed on January 31. These included University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, one of the largest trusts in England, along with Sandwell & West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust
Covid cases in England plunged 41% in a fortnight, Test and Trace data shows
By Connor Boyd, Assistant Health Editor for MailOnline
Covid cases in England have plummeted by 41 per cent in the last fortnight, according to Test and Trace figures as pressure on NHS intensive care units has started to ease for the first time since the second wave took off.
The contact tracing programme reported 196,257 positive tests in the week up to January 27, down from 333,802 in the seven days to January 13. Infections hit a record-high 389,946 in the week ending January 13.
Of the 198,874 people transferred to the Test and Trace system in the week to January 27, 86 per cent were reached and asked to provide details of recent close contacts.
This is down very slightly from 87 per cent in the previous week. Some 12 per cent of people transferred to Test and Trace in the week to January 27 were not reached, while a further 1.7 per cent did not provide any contact details.
Meanwhile, latest NHS England data published today showed there were 5,283 patients in ICUs across the country on the last day of January, down slightly on the previous week, when there were 5,446 beds in use.
It is significant because it marks the first time ICU capacity has eased since the highly-infectious Kent Covid variant started to spiral out of control in December, suggesting the winter wave has passed its peak and the NHS will not be overwhelmed.
The latest NHS Test and Trace report published today showed coronavirus infections fell by 40 per cent in the last two weeks, in another sign the crisis is firmly in retreat. The programme reported 196,257 positive tests in the week up to January 27, down from 333,802 in the seven days to January 13. Infections hit a record-high 389,946 in the week ending January 13
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