DOWN THE STRETCH: Here’s Where Everything Stands In The 2020 Campaign With Exactly 100 Days Left

A President Donald Trump and a former Vice President Joe Biden supporter converse before the Joe Biden Campaign Rally at the National World War I Museum and Memorial on March 7, 2020 in Kansas City, Missouri.

Some say there’s just not enough time for President Trump, waaaaay down in the polls right now, to turn the race around.
Others say there’s a lifetime left in the 2020 campaign, and the coming debates will decide the contest.
Who knows who’s right. But as of Sunday, there are exactly 100 days left in the race between the sitting president and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
The current headlines are all bad for Trump.
“Trump could lose reelection in 100 days — and the US is on edge,” Yahoo News writes. “Cratering in the polls, canceling his showcase convention event, and struggling to land punches on his opponent, Donald Trump has only 100 days from Sunday to save his presidency — and it’s not going well.”The Hill, an inside-the-Beltway publication, was equally grim. “President Trump faces a steep climb to a second term with 100 days to go before the presidential election.” The Associated Press, meanwhile, was a bit kinder, saying “Trump faces headwinds as Election Day draws near.”
A quick look at the polls shows that Trump does face “headwinds” and a “steep climb.” Real Clear Politics (RCP), which keeps tabs on all polls and puts out a running average, places Biden atop Trump by 8.7 points, 49.6% to 40.9%.
But polls can be wrong (see “Election, 2016”). What decides the race is the Electoral College, and that vote is very much up in the air right now. RCP also keeps an eye on the College, and right now, Biden has 222 Electoral Votes in the “solid,” “likely,” and “leans” columns, while Trump has 115 in his “solid,” “likely,” and “leans” columns.
The political site also says that 13 states are currently “toss ups”: Texas (38); Florida (29); Pennsylvania (20); Ohio (18); Michigan (16); Georgia (16); North Carolina (15); Arizona (11); Wisconsin (10); Missouri (10); Iowa (6); Nevada (6); New Hampshire (4).
With a couple of other state districts also in play, that’s 201 Electoral Votes in play in the race to 270. How those states and districts break will decide who wins the White House.
Among the most important states for Trump to win re-election is Florida, which Trump won by just more than 112,000 out of 9,000,000+ votes in 2016. Florida shows how things have gone for the president since COVID-19 came ashore and swept across America, followed by riots that still rage in the wake of the May 25 death of George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police.
Trump led in Florida by the slimmest of margins, 47.0% to 46.8%, on April 18, right about the time the virus peaked in New York and many other states. But now he trails by a whopping 7 points, 49.7% to 42.7%. That’s why the Cook Political Report has moved Florida from the “toss up” category to the “leans Biden” column.
While nearly all the polls put Biden well in the lead, one nationwide survey recently found that there may be “secret Trump supporters” in at least one swing state that could tilt the election toward the president on Nov. 3.
The poll by Monmouth University of 401 Pennsylvania voters conducted July 9-13 found that a majority of voters believe there are Trump supporters out there who aren’t being counted. “The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
What’s more, Biden has been holed up in his basement for months, and refuses to take questions from the media. He won’t be able to sustain that as the race heads into the home stretch, and there’s virtually no way he can avoid facing off with Trump in three presidential debates that begin in late September.
While no one — especially the pollsters — knows which way the election will go, one thing is for sure: It’s going to be one crazy roller coaster ride.
Fasten your seat belt.

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