Could Omicron be GOOD news? Variant 'might speed up end of pandemic if it causes mild illness' as South Africa records NO hospital admissions or deaths from super strain - but scientists won't know for at least two weeks
The new Covid variant Omicron could turn out to be a 'Christmas gift' if it causes milder illness, a German health expert claimed today after South African doctors said the strain appears to cause less severe symptoms.
Medics in South Africa said the strain is causing mild symptoms — such as a headache and tiredness — than previous versions of the virus and hasn't led to a single hospitalisation or death.
Professor Karl Lauterbach, a clinical epidemiologist who is in the running to be Germany's next health minister, said the early reports means Omicron could be a Christmas gift and may even speed up the end of the pandemic.
He suggested that it has so many mutations — 32 on the spike protein alone, twice as many as Delta — which could mean it is optimised to infect and be less lethal, in line with how most respiratory viruses evolve.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious diseases expert at the University of East Anglia, said the theory 'may prove to be true' but said that high levels of previous infection and vaccination may be offering protection against the strain.
This would also be a positive sign, because it shows that the highly-mutated variant is not completely unrecognisable to the immune system of Covid survivors or vaccines.
Scientists have long-warned the coronavirus is unlikely to ever be eradicated but will instead transition into a milder cold-like virus.
However, experts warned today that they need at least two weeks to determine what impact the Omicron variant will have, due to the time it takes for someone to become seriously unwell after catching the strain.
Scientists also need at least two weeks to work out whether Omicron's worrying mutations could make it more infectious than Delta and resistant to vaccines will translate in the real world.
And most cases have so far been in younger people, who experience milder symptoms from the virus compared to older adults.
It comes as Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said Christmas plans could be put in jeopardy by the new strain, raising fears Britons could be stung with last-minute curbs like last year.
Ms Sturgeon confirmed six cases of the variant have been recorded in Scotland, some of which do not have links to abroad, suggesting Omicron is now spreading in the community.
She called for the UK — which has nine confirmed cases of the variant — to toughen up its approach by ordering all arrivals to self-isolate at home for eight days instead of two to curb the spread of the new strain. But Boris Johnson rejected the plan and said the Government will review its approach in three weeks.
Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and the first person to spot the new variant in a patient, said her patients infected with Omicron reported different and much milder symptoms, including tiredness, muscle aches, a sore head and a dry cough. But none reported the tell-tale symptoms of a loss of smell or taste or breathing difficulties
The Botswana variant has around 50 mutations and more than 30 of them are on the spike protein. The current crop of vaccines trigger the body to recognise the version of the spike protein from older versions of the virus. But the mutations may make the spike protein look so different that the body's immune system struggles to recognise it and fight it off. And three of the spike mutations (H665Y, N679K, P681H) help it enter the body's cells more easily. Meanwhile, it is missing a membrane protein (NSP6) which was seen in earlier iterations of the virus, which experts think could make it more infectious. And it has two mutations (R203K and G204R) that have been present in all variants of concern so far and have been linked with infectiousness
Vaccine-makers Moderna and Pfizer are already working on Covid vaccines that could tackle the Omicron strain, if it poses a problem for the current crop of vaccines, and they could be ready in the first half of 2022
Scotland reported six cases today, some of which were not linked to travel to southern Africa, suggesting the variant is already spreading in the community. It brings the UK total to nine cases, after England confirmed three over the weekend. But there may be as many as 225 across the country, as Government labs are examining 75 'probable' cases of Omicron and up to 150 ‘possible’ cases
SHARE THIS ARTICLE
The new variant was first detected last week and most cases are concentrated in South Africa, where daily infections soared to 6,048 on Saturday, a 20-fold increase on the 306 positive tests registered two weeks earlier. But deaths have so far remained flat, with 20 recorded on Saturday.
And doctors have said symptoms among patients are mild and include tiredness, muscle aches and a headache.
But they warned the first cases of the variant — scientifically known as B.1.1.529 — in the country have been among younger people, who tend to have higher infection levels due and experience milder illness.
Experts said symptoms and their severity could be different as Omicron spreads into older age groups.
Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association and the first person to spot the new variant in a patient, said seven people she treated had extreme tiredness, mild muscle aches, a scratchy throat and a dry cough.
She told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: 'What we are seeing clinically in South Africa – and remember I’m at the epicentre – it’s extremely mild.'
Dr Coetzee said those infected with the strain recovered well at home and 'get better within two to three days after we’ve seen them'.
When asked if the UK was 'panicking unnecessarily' she said: 'I would say yes, at this stage I would say definitely. There’s no need to panic.'
Responding to the comments, Professor Lauterbach tweeted 'it would really be an early Christmas present' if Omicron was a less severe version of the virus.
But he cautioned that only six per cent of South Africa's population is aged over 65-years-old, while 'Germany is the oldest country in Europe with many chronically ill people'.
Professor Hunter told MailOnline the reports of mild illness are anecdotal so can't be relied on too much.
If Omicron does cause less severe illness, it is 'probably down to prior immunity either from infection or vaccination', he said.
It 'could be less virulent', but hopes that it is milder 'may or may not prove to be true', Professor Hunter said.
'Even if it is less virulent, taking the booster shot is the most important thing people can do to protect themselves,' he added.
Scientists have warned the world is weeks away from knowing what impact the new variant will have, due to the delay in people catching the virus and becoming severely unwell.
Dr Anthony Fauci, the US chief medical advisor, said 'it will take approximately two more weeks' until experts have more definitive information on transmissibility and severity.
And Scotland's First Minister said the coming weeks will reveal 'much more' about the variant.
British scientists are waiting for a live version of the variant to arrive in laboratories to conduct further tests.
Experts expect that the vaccines will still offer some protection against the virus, but real world data could reveal the jabs are less effective against Omicron compared to previous strains.
But the World Health Organization (WHO) noted that how transmissible the variant is; how well vaccines protect against infection, hospitalisation and death caused by Omicron; and whether the virus causes more severe illness compared to previous strains are the questions that need to be answered.
It said 'there is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants'.
However, it warned the variant could change the 'trajectory of the pandemic' and the 'consequences may be severe'.
And Dr Simon Clarke, a microbiologist based at Reading University, told MailOnline the mild symptoms recorded in South Africa among some infected people does not signal that the latest version of the virus will be mild.
He said: 'It is way too early to be expecting the range of full symptoms to have been played out.'
Covid symptoms are 'often mild in all the other variants too', so 'it’s simply wrong to think that it always makes people really ill, it doesn’t', Dr Clarke said.
Most of the cases have been linked with younger age groups, who you 'wouldn’t expect' to suffer a serious illness, he said.
Dr Clarke added: 'Ever since this started, people have been predicting that it will become less virulent, but all the travel has been in the opposite direction.
'If this variant is less virulent than say Delta, it could still be worse than the original Wuhan version.'
It comes as No10 today dismissed calls from the Scottish and Welsh First Ministers to require all UK arrivals to quarantine for eight days instead of two in a bid to control the spread of the new variant.
Ms Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford also urged the Prime Minister to call an immediate emergency meeting of the COBRA committee and pushed for Boris Johnson to lay the groundwork for a potential return of the furlough scheme in case the situation worsens.
But Downing Street swiftly rejected the pleas from Ms Sturgeon and Mr Drakeford, arguing that the Government's initial response to the variant is still the correct one and it will be reviewed in three weeks' time. Here is everything we know about the variant so far:
What is so concerning about the variant?
Experts say it is the 'worst variant they have ever seen' and are alarmed by the number of mutations it carries.
The variant — which the World Health Organization has named Omicron — has 32 mutations on the spike protein — the most ever recorded and twice as many as the currently dominant Delta strain.
Experts fear the changes could make the vaccines 40 per cent less effective in a best-case scenario.
This is because so many of the changes on B.1.1.529 are on the virus's spike protein.
The current crop of vaccines trigger the body to recognise the version of the spike from older versions of the virus.
But because the spike protein looks so different on the new strain, the body's immune system may struggle to recognise it and fight it off.
It also includes mutations found on the Delta variant that allow it to spread more easily.
Experts warn they won't know how much more infectious the virus is for at least two weeks and may not know its impact on Covid hospitalisations and deaths for up to six weeks.
What mutations does the variant have?
The Botswana variant has more than 50 mutations and more than 30 of them are on the spike protein.
It carries mutations P681H and N679K which are 'rarely seen together' and could make it yet more jab resistant.
These two mutations, along with H655Y, may also make it easier for the virus to sneak into the body's cells.
And the mutation N501Y may make the strain more transmissible. It was previously seen on the Alpha and Beta strains — which were first spotted in South Africa and Kent, respectively.
Two other mutations (R203K and G204R) could make the virus more infectious, while a mutation that is missing from this variant (NSP6) could increase its transmissibility.
No comments: