Hope for Christmas as ONS study shows coronavirus infections in England dropped 18% to 38,900 per day in first full week of lockdown and R rate is down AGAIN to 1.1

  • Office for National Statistics's weekly report admits infections are now 'levelling off' in England
  • The total size of the outbreak remains bigger than at any point on record because of weeks of fast increase
  • A total 664,700 people were thought to be infected with coronavirus in the week from November 8 to 14 
  • SAGE is expected to publish an updated estimate of the R rate this afternoon, after it fell towards 1 last week

England's coronavirus outbreak slowed down in the first full week of the second national shutdown and the R rate across the UK could be as low as 1, according to official data that raises hopes for a lockdown-free Christmas. 

Office for National Statistics data published this afternoon showed daily infections dropped from 47,700 to 38,900 between November 8 and November 14, a fall of 18 per cent. The ONS said the rate of new infections 'appears to have levelled off in the most recent week'.

The promising numbers from the ONS seem to suggest that both the Tier Three local lockdown rules and, later, the national shutdown, are successfully slowing down the spread of the virus. Experts at the statistical body said: 'The rate of increase [in positive tests] in England has slowed in recent weeks'.  

Meanwhile, the Government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said the reproduction 'R' rate - the average number of people each Covid-19 patient passes the disease to - had fallen slightly to a maximum of 1.1, from a maximum of 1.2 last week, and could be as low as 1.0 or lower in every region of Britain.

Modelling by the group estimates the R is now between 1.0 and 1.1, meaning on average every 10 Britons with Covid will infect between 10 and 11 others. They estimated this figure was between 1.0 and 1.2 last week. The R is one of many indicators scientists use to assess the trajectory of Covid and getting it below 1 means the virus is in retreat. 

The promising data are a major boost for Boris Johnson's plans to loosen lockdown for five days over Christmas and let families reunite after a tumultuous year that has seen loved ones separated for months on end. Negotiations are ongoing between the four home nations as they try to hammer out the safest way to let people celebrate the festive period without reversing the effects of lockdown and letting the virus surge again. 

But there will be a battle to agree terms given the dramatically different approaches which have been taken by England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in recent months. One damage limitation strategy being touted would see tough restrictions imposed for more than a week on either side of Christmas. 

Mr Hancock dampened hopes of a wholesale end to draconian restrictions during a round of interviews this morning, however, warning 'it of course won't be like a normal Christmas' and 'there will have to be rules in place'. He also insisted people will still be required to adhere to social distancing regardless of what other measures are put in place.

Britain's most senior police officer today said she has 'no interest in interrupting family Christmas dinners' to catch coronavirus rule-breakers as Matt Hancock suggested people will still be banned from hugging their relatives. Metropolitan Police Commissioner Dame Cressida Dick said 'the police have lots of other things to be doing' and she will not be 'encouraging my people to be barging through people’s doors or knocking on people’s doors'.

In other coronavirus twists and turns today:

  • Coronavirus vaccinations could be under way for all adults by the end of January after the most vulnerable get jabs next month, leaked NHS plans show;
  • Professor Lockdown Neil Ferguson warned most Covid curbs should stay after national shutdown ends on December 2 or infections will 'rebound';
  • Northern Ireland is going into lockdow again just days after reopening, with all non-essential shops, hair salons and cafes forced to close from next Friday in another tough two-week shutdown;
  • Pfizer has sent full results on its breakthrough Covid vaccine to the FDA in the US so it can be approved for December roll-out, raising hopes the UK could be next within days;
  • Rishi Sunak is facing a battle with trade unions as they brand his pay squeeze for five million public sector workers - apart from nurses and doctors - a 'cruel body blow' as he scrambles for ways to help pay for coronavirus recovery;
  • Ex-Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt said the Government should test everyone for coronavirus once a month to make a 'freedom pass' system where people with negative results can live normal lives;
  • MMR vaccine may protect against Covid-19 as study claims people with large amounts of mumps antibodies are less likely to get severe illness;
  • People with COVID-19 antibodies are protected against reinfection for at least six months, an Oxford study has found; 
  • Some Cineworld cinemas will never reopen after Covid lockdown, bosses have warned as they consider permanent closures and job losses in bid to save struggling movie house chain.

SAGE today said the R has 'fallen slightly in recent weeks' and the group is now 'not confident that R is currently above 1 in England', meaning the virus could already be in retreat. 

In a further note of optimism the Government's scientists said the R could already below the crucial number of 1 because its modelling is three weeks out of date and does yet not reflect the effect the national lockdown has had on the virus. SAGE uses a slew of data, including hospital admissions and deaths, to calculate the R. It can take three weeks for Covid-19 patients to fall seriously ill and start affecting these statistics.

Meanwhile, the ONS has warned that while cases are continuing to come down in the worst-hit North of the country, where many areas were in Tier Three local lockdowns before the national measures, they are still increasing in the South and the East. Cases remain higher overall in the North but the total number is no longer rising.

This week's report estimates that a total of 664,700 people across England were infected with coronavirus last week, which is more than at any time since the ONS started its programme. The results are based on mass swab testing of a random portion of the population. 

In the past fortnight, which produced the data used in today's report, 198,932 tests were carried out and 2,046 people tested positive in 2,257 tests. The adjusted infection rates suggest one in ever 80 people is currently carrying the virus.  

Positive tests being recorded by the Department of Health have also stopped rising, with the number of positive cases getting announced each day falling for six days in a row between last Thursday and this Wednesday before a small rise yesterday. The daily average has come down for three consecutive days to 23,294.

Today's ONS data from November 8 to 14 suggests the overall national infection rate for England is similar to the week before, but there are stark regional divides, with rates rising again in primary school aged children.The ONS said: 'Over the last week, infection rates have continued to increase in London, the East of England and the South East, however rates now appear to be decreasing in the North West and the East Midlands.

'The highest Covid-19 infection rates remain in the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber.'  

POLICE CHIEF SAYS OFFICERS WON'T BREAK UP FAMILY GATHERINGS 

Britain's most senior police officer today said she has 'no interest in interrupting family Christmas dinners' to catch coronavirus rule-breakers as Matt Hancock suggested people will still be banned from hugging their relatives. 

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Dame Cressida Dick said 'the police have lots of other things to be doing' and she will not be 'encouraging my people to be barging through people’s doors or knocking on people’s doors'.

However, she warned officers will be prepared to intervene if they are made aware of flagrant breaches of the restrictions which are 'causing lots of concerns with the neighbours'. 

Her comments came as Mr Hancock poured cold water on the prospect of a major loosening of curbs over the festive period as he said he wants a UK-wide set of rules 'if at all possible'. 

Dame Cressida told LBC Radio she had 'no intention' of telling her officers to knock on people's doors to make sure families are complying with the measures.    

She said: ‘We have no powers of entry, I have no intention anyway of encouraging my people to be barging through people’s doors or knocking on people’s doors unless you have got, as we sometimes do and then they can’t barge they may knock, a huge party going on which is clearly very, very dangerous and causing lots of concerns with the neighbours.

Dame Cressida Dick, London's police commissioner

Dame Cressida Dick, London's police commissioner

‘Then we might be knocking on the doors saying you need to stop this.’

Asked whether the police could look the other way if they were aware of minor breaches of the rules, Dame Cressida replied: ‘Well, we don’t know of course what the rules will be at Christmas. Let’s see what the rules are.

‘But I have no interest in interrupting family Christmas dinners. The police have lots of other things to be doing.’   Katherine Kent, co-head of analysis for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: 'There are early signs that the national level of infections in England might be levelling off but this hides a lot of variation at a regional level.

'Whilst the highest levels of infection remain in the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber, rates are now decreasing in the North West and the East Midlands while increasing in London, the East of England and the South East.

'New increases appear to be driven by infections in younger people, with increasing levels in primary school age children.

'Elsewhere in the UK, we are seeing a similar picture with increasing infections throughout October which are now decreasing in Wales and Northern Ireland and levelling off in Scotland.'  

Meanwhile, data from the Covid Symptom Study app, run by King's College London and health-tech company ZOE, suggests the UK reproduction number – the R value – is around 1.

The R represents the average number of people someone with Covid-19 goes on to infect. The ZOE app team put the R in England at 1.0, and at 0.9 in Wales and Scotland.

But it said that 'worryingly, the east of England and especially the Midlands are both seeing numbers still increasing with R values of 1.1 and 1 respectively'.

Meanwhile, the North West and the North East and Yorkshire both have R values of 0.9 as cases decline.

In the South East, London and South West, cases are not declining, the researchers said, and the R is 1.

Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, said: 'The reason we are now seeing an overall R value of 1 in England is because numbers are falling in the North, rising in the Midlands and East but staying flat in the south of England.

'The continued rise in the Midlands, despite national lockdown, is concerning.

'This suggests an approach focused on improved compliance at regional, not national level, over a longer time frame is the best way forward.

'We need to keep cases low enough for us to function as a nation until vaccines arrive without further harmful lockdowns.'

The ONS said the highest infection rates are in secondary school aged children, older teenagers and young adults and that rates continue to increase in primary school aged children.

Meanwhile, infection rates appear to be levelling off in people aged 25 and over.

It was children, teenagers and university students who set off the second wave of coronavirus when summer ended so, although they are much less likely to die of severe Covid-19 than adults, infections among them must still be taken extremely seriously.

When modelling the level of infection among different age groups, the ONS said rates among secondary school-aged children (school years 7 to 11) now appear to be increasing again, while rates for young adults (school year 12 to age 24) appear to show early signs of levelling off.

Both these age groups continue to have the highest estimated rates of infection.

Rates are continuing to increase in primary school-aged children (school year two to six), but 'appear to be levelling off' in people aged 25 and over, the ONS added. 

The overall decline in daily infections bodes well for Britain heading into Christmas, and for England's national lockdown being at least partially lifted in the next two weeks.  

Downing Street said again yesterday that the Prime Minister was set on relaxing the Covid restrictions to allow families a break at the end of ‘an incredibly difficult year’.

Ministers vowed to strike a balance with the need to stop the virus running out of control, and are examining a series of options to relax restrictions around Christmas. Under one proposal, families from three or four households could gather, but could not meet anyone else. An alternative would be to simply relax the Rule of Six to allow larger groups. 

In both cases, the plans would last for five days at the most, and possibly only three. One proposed timetable would run from Christmas Eve to the Bank Holiday on December 28.

COVID VACCINATIONS COULD START WITHIN WEEKS, MATT HANCOCK SAYS AS HE VOWS TO TAKE 'PERSONAL CONTROL' OF PLANS 

Vulnerable Britons could start to be vaccinated against coronavirus within weeks, Matt Hancock suggested today as he promised to take 'personal control' of the biggest immunisation drive in British history. 

The Health Secretary raised hopes last week when he said it could be possible to dish out Pfizer's vaccine - which looks most likely to be approved first - to high risk groups from December 1.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock

Health Secretary Matt Hancock

But officials are waiting for the jab to be given the green light from the UK's drugs watchdog, which is poring over data from Pfizer's studies to make sure the vaccine is safe enough to give to millions of people.

Mr Hancock said today he's 'still holding out hope' this process will be wrapped up in weeks and that vulnerable Brits could start getting their hands on a jab sometime next month as part of the first wave of the crucial operation.

He added that he was taking 'personal control' of the roll out that could see NHS England administering an unprecedented one million doses every day.

Though the Health Secretary - who is still failing to live up to his promise of 500,000 coronavirus tests per day by the end of October - admitted it was going to be 'one of the biggest civilian projects in history'.  Meanwhile, Britain's most senior police officer today said she has 'no interest in interrupting family Christmas dinners' to catch coronavirus rule-breakers after Matt Hancock suggested people will still be banned from hugging their relatives. 

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Dame Cressida Dick said 'the police have lots of other things to be doing' and she will not be 'encouraging my people to be barging through people’s doors or knocking on people’s doors'.

However, she warned officers will be prepared to intervene if they are made aware of flagrant breaches of the restrictions which are 'causing lots of concerns with the neighbours'. 

Her comments came as Mr Hancock poured cold water on the prospect of a major loosening of curbs over the festive period as he said he wants a UK-wide set of rules 'if at all possible'. 

The Health Secretary said negotiations are ongoing between the four home nations as they try to hammer out proposals which would allow people to travel to see their family. 

But there is likely to be an uphill battle to agree terms given the dramatically different lockdown approaches which have been taken by England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in recent months. 

There had been hopes of a massive easing of draconian restrictions to allow people to celebrate Christmas with their loved ones. 

But Mr Hancock dampened those hopes as he said 'it of course won't be like a normal Christmas' and 'there will have to be rules in place'.    

He also insisted people will still be required to adhere to social distancing regardless of what other measures may be changed.

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, a leading statistician at the University of Cambridge, said any easing of rules will undoubtedly come with extensive Government guidance which he suggested could include a ban on singing as he also joked: 'Maybe they will try to make a rule against family rows at Christmas.' 

If the Government goes ahead with plans to loosen rules at Christmas it will have to contend with the anger of scientists and medics who say the virus will be just as dangerous then as on any other day.

Katherine Henderson, president of Royal College of Emergency Medicine, said Christmas should be treated as just another ‘date in the month’ this year, adding: ‘If Covid cases become hospital cases and then sadly go on to become deaths, we will regret a Christmas season that gave granny Covid for Christmas.’ 

Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the Government’s scientific committee Sage, said that allowing family gatherings would create a ‘substantial risk’ of new infections. ‘My personal view is we’re putting far too much emphasis on having a near-normal Christmas,’ he told Radio 4’s Today programme.

‘We know respiratory infections peak in January, so throwing fuel on the fire over Christmas can only contribute to this.’ 

And Professor Gabriel Scally, a public health expert from Bristol University, said there was ‘no point’ in having a merry Christmas only to ‘bury friends and relations in January and February’. 

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