Starting lockdown two weeks earlier would have curtailed deaths by 83% and saved 54,000 lives, Columbia University finds

  • Researchers revealed an early response to coronavirus outbreak could have saved up to 54,000 lives in the US by early May
  • Columbia University study found 703,975 cases of infection and 35,927 deaths would have been avoided if lockdown measures were imposed a week earlier 
  • Federal government and states began issuing stay-at-home orders on March 15   
  • Had measures been implemented two weeks earlier, an estimated 83% of total deaths would have been avoided 
More than 54,000 lives in the US would have been saved and over 900,000 coronavirus cases could have been avoided if social distancing measures and stay-at-home orders were imposed two weeks earlier, new data has shown.  
A study conducted by researchers at Columbia University has revealed how an early response to the outbreak could have curtailed the number of deaths in the US by 83 per cent.
The federal government and states began issuing stay-at-home orders on March 15 - four days after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic. 
A study has revealed how an early response to the outbreak could have curtailed the number of deaths in the US by 83 per cent
A study has revealed how an early response to the outbreak could have curtailed the number of deaths in the US by 83 per cent
By May 3, a total of 65,307 Americans had died from the virus and the number of infections across the country had surpassed one million. 
Had the US introduced lockdown measures one week earlier on March 8, the death toll is estimated to have been just 29,410, according to the study. 
The number of cases nationwide would have been just under 390,000.
The research also presents the estimated number of deaths under a scenario in which lockdown measures were imposed on March 1. 
About 54,000 fewer people would have died by early May, or just 11,317. 
'These dramatic reductions of morbidity and mortality due to more timely deployment of control measures highlights the critical need for aggressive, early response to the COVID-19 pandemic,' the report states. 
The modeling showed how social distancing measures, or NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) have successfully controlled the spread of COVID-19 among the population.
The Majestic Theater playing 'Phantom of the Opera' on 44th Street lies dormant during the time of COVID-19 pandemic
The Majestic Theater playing 'Phantom of the Opera' on 44th Street lies dormant during the time of COVID-19 pandemic 
However, it notes the effectiveness of these control measures has been less pronounced in the US.  
Six days before the country went into lockdown, there were only 546 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 22 deaths. 
But in reality, the number of infections was much higher, as thousands of people would have been walking around without symptoms and limited testing kits would mean those people would go undetected. 
According to the study, on May 3, there were 21,800 deaths in the New York metropolitan area - the US epicenter of the outbreak. 
The report estimates that figure would have been under 4,300 if measures were introduced by March 8. 
The US, which has the highest number of coronavirus-related deaths in the world, has been criticized over its slow response to the pandemic. 
Earlier this month, CDC official Dr. Anne Schuchat said the US failed to understand quickly enough how the virus was spreading from Europe and missed some vital opportunities to slow the spread.
'We clearly didn't recognize the full importations that were happening,' Schuchat told The Associated Press.
Her findings marked another blow for President Trump who has come under fire for denying the seriousness of the outbreak in the early days of it spreading across the US.
She blamed limited testing for the virus and delayed travel alerts for areas outside China for cases of the virus spiking in the US in late February.
Schuchat noted that nearly two million travelers arrived in the US from Italy and other European countries during February, which led to a 'rapid spread' of the virus on American soil.
In late February, Trump was still insisting the risk of coronavirus to Americans was 'very low' and he did not block travel from Europe until March 11.
He has repeatedly praised his move to stop entry from China into the US from February 2.
But Schuchat's suggested the president should also have been turning his attentions to banning travel from Europe at the same time.

Earlier lockdown would have curtailed deaths by 83%, study reveals

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