Mint Covid Tracker: India’s corona trajectory slowing, with cases doubling in eleven days

Covid Kavach launched in South East District as number of corona positive cases is increasing in South-East Distt, some areas have been declared as containment zones, in New Delhi on Wednesday. (ANI Photo)

Covid Kavach launched in South East District as number of corona positive cases is increasing in South-East Distt, some areas have been declared as containment zones, in New Delhi on Wednesday.
Mumbai, Ahmedabad, New Delhi, Indore, and Chennai account for half of all new cases over the past two days
The number of reported coronavirus cases in India rose 12 percent over the past two days to 31,787, data from the ministry of health and family welfare (MoHFW) published last evening showed. This is a slower rate of increase compared to the previous 48 hours, when the reported case count rose 14 percent to 28,380.
So far this week, the number of cases has gone up by 18 percent (between Sunday evening and Wednesday evening). This is slower compared to the previous three days, when confirmed cases had risen by 24 percent.
Although India’s coronavirus trajectory has tapered over the past couple of weeks, it continues to be steeper compared to Asian peers such as Japan and Indonesia.
Compared to Western nations where the virus has claimed more lives, the trajectories of most Asian countries, including India, have been flatter so far. Yet, with new infections declining, the worst may be over for several European countries. In most Asian countries, new infections are still rising.
India’s case count is now roughly double what it was eleven days ago. This is a much slower rate compared to early-April, when cases were doubling every four days. Deaths have also seen slower rise. India’s death toll from covid-19 as of last evening was 1,008, roughly double what it was twelve days ago. Still, at the current rate of compounded growth, the number of cases could rise to 50,000 in the next six days. If this trajectory continues beyond that period, it could overwhelm India’s hospital capacity and strain an already overburdened health system.
At 7,530, Maharashtra leads in terms of the number of active cases, according to the health ministry update on Wednesday evening. Active cases exclude deaths and recoveries from the list of confirmed cases.
Gujarat has the second most number of active cases (3,159), followed by Delhi (2,182). At 2,065 active cases, Madhya Pradesh has the fourth-highest number of active cases, followed by Uttar Pradesh (1,602). The top five states together account for 72 percent of the active cases nationally, and the top ten states account for 92 percent of all cases.
Nationally, the active case count was 22,982 as of yesterday evening. These are early days yet and the state-wise distribution could change in the coming days. Testing across states has been uneven and as testing gets ramped up, more cases could come to light in states where reported cases have been low so far.

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